Real (TIPS) · Regime · 2 Oct 2026
Bear Flattener on the month
Bull and bear say which way the curve went; steepener and flattener say which end moved more.
Real (TIPS) regime, 4 Oct 2021 to 2 Oct 2026: currently a bear flattener on a 1m lookback, with Δ level +44bp and Δ slope −15bp.
TIPS real yields: the return Treasury bonds pay above inflation once their inflation-linked principal is stripped out.
Bull and bear say which way the curve went; steepener and flattener say which end moved more. Four combinations, one per session, and quiet days are left unnamed.
Under the chart, a band names each day’s quadrant. Behind it run the two things that decided it, change in level and in slope.
Bull says the real yield fell over the lookback and bear that it rose; the second word says which end moved further.
A long maturity down 15bp with its gap to the short one 8bp wider is a bull steepener; the front fell further.
Bull steepeners have clustered ahead of past easing cycles and bear flatteners ahead of tightening ones. Under a two basis point move either way the day is left unclassified rather than forced.
US Treasury · NBER · daily TIPS par yield curve · regime computed here
2 Oct 2026 · real par yields, Treasury, around 3:30pm ET
| Tenor | Real yield | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y | 2.69% | +4 | +5 | +50 | +137 | 99 |
| 7Y | 2.80% | +4 | +7 | +49 | +125 | 99 |
| 10Y | 2.92% | +4 | +9 | +47 | +112 | 99 |
| 20Y | 3.19% | +3 | +11 | +41 | +94 | 100 |
| 30Y | 3.34% | +3 | +12 | +36 | +85 | 100 |
tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar
| Pair | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s | +23bp | 0 | +4 | −3 | 52 |
| 5s30s | +65bp | −1 | +7 | −14 | 54 |
| 10s30s | +42bp | −1 | +3 | −11 | 58 |
long − short, in basis points
| Fly | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s30s | −19bp | +1 | +1 | +8 | 41 |
2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral
| Fly | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s30s | −4bp | +1 | 0 | +10 | 30 |
the fly with 5s30s regressed out over five years
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Inverted | 0 of 7 | pairs 2× apart in maturity |
| Deepest | — | nothing counted is inverted |
| Uncounted | — | no inversion between neighbours |
| 5s30s | not inverted | |
| Month | Bear Flattener | Δ level +44bp · Δ slope −15bp over a month |
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Last episode | 42 sessions | 11 Aug 2023 → 11 Oct 2023 |
| Deepest (25 Aug 2023) | −20bp | |
| Area | 433 | basis points × sessions below zero |
| Un-inverted (12 Oct 2023) | 1086 days ago | calendar days, not sessions |
5s30s episodes of 20 sessions or more, since 22 Feb 2010
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 10Y vol | 83bp | annualised, 21 sessions |
| Rank · 5y | 56th | |
| Shape share | 0.70 | 5s30s vol ÷ 10Y vol |
realised standard deviation of daily changes, annualised
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | −8.0% | |
| 5y | −25.8% | not annualised |
| Worst fall (3 Aug 2021) | −29.7% | peak to trough, bottoming 25 Oct 2023 |
| Since then | −28.2% |
a rolling 10Y par bond, coupon and price. Not a fund
| Anchor | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| NBER (dated to 1 Sep 2026) | not in a dated recession | NBER dates turning points about a year late |
Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the published real yield curve. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.