TIPS Real Yields · Compare · 10Y 2.63% — Steepener

The read

Real (TIPS) · Compare · 6 Nov 2026

10Y 2.63%

on the month: −29bp
5s30s: +72bp
rank · 5y: 97th

Compare draws two curves at once, and the height between them at each maturity is a third rate.

Nominal Yields and Real (TIPS) on 6 Nov 2026, drawn on one axis. The vertical distance between them at each maturity is the breakeven inflation priced there. Each curve is drawn only where it publishes, so the shorter line ends where its own maturities do.

TIPS real yields: the return Treasury bonds pay above inflation once their inflation-linked principal is stripped out.

Angles

History · 10Y at or above its five-year median of 1.85% for 163 sessions, 220 of the last 250 at or above · the last year of sessions split by today’s five-year median
Change · −29bp on the month, most at the 5Y (−31bp) · on the month, in basis points; amber rose, blue fell
Rank · 10Y at 2.63%, 97th percentile of five years · box is the middle half, tick the median, the solid bar is today
Curve · 2.35% at the 5Y rising to a high of 3.07% at the 30Y · level bars, shaded by five-year rank; the headline maturity is outlined

How to read this

What it is

Compare draws two curves at once, and the height between them at each maturity is a third rate. Nominal less real gives what inflation costs at that maturity.

How to read the chart

Percent up the side, maturity across. The height separating one line from the other is the gap priced at that maturity.

A gap that holds while both lines move is the real yield doing it. A gap that opens is priced inflation instead.

A 10Y at 4.70% over a real 2.38% leaves 2.32%, the inflation priced between the two.

Method

TIPS run from 2003, and their 30Y only from 2010. Under five years just the nominal line exists. A missing separation there means one line has no data, never that nothing is priced.

Source

US Treasury · daily TIPS par yield curve · compare computed here

Real (TIPS) in detail

6 Nov 2026 · real par yields, Treasury, around 3:30pm ET

Curve

Tenor	Real yield	1D	1W	1M	1Y	%ile 5y
5Y	2.35%	+2	+10	−31	+104	95
7Y	2.48%	+2	+6	−30	+93	97
10Y	2.63%	+3	+3	−29	+82	97
20Y	2.91%	+1	−1	−29	+67	97
30Y	3.07%	+2	−1	−29	+62	97

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

Pair	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
5s10s	+28bp	+1	−7	+2	57
5s30s	+72bp	0	−11	+2	57
10s30s	+44bp	−1	−4	0	61

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
5s10s30s	−16bp	+2	−3	+2	51

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
5s10s30s	−2bp	+2	−2	+2	38

the fly with 5s30s regressed out over five years

State

Line	Value	Detail
Inverted	0 of 7	pairs 2× apart in maturity
Deepest	—	nothing counted is inverted
Uncounted	—	no inversion between neighbours
5s30s	not inverted
Month	Bull Steepener	Δ level −29bp · Δ slope +3bp over a month

This inversion

Line	Value	Detail
Last episode	42 sessions	11 Aug 2023 → 11 Oct 2023
Deepest (25 Aug 2023)	−20bp
Area	433	basis points × sessions below zero
Un-inverted (12 Oct 2023)	1121 days ago	calendar days, not sessions

5s30s episodes of 20 sessions or more, since 22 Feb 2010

Volatility

Line	Value	Detail
10Y vol	66bp	annualised, 21 sessions
Rank · 5y	33rd
Shape share	1.10	5s30s vol ÷ 10Y vol

realised standard deviation of daily changes, annualised

Held, not watched

Line	Value	Detail
1y	−4.9%
5y	−25.1%	not annualised
Worst fall (3 Aug 2021)	−29.7%	peak to trough, bottoming 25 Oct 2023
Since then	−26.1%

a rolling 10Y par bond, coupon and price. Not a fund

Anchors

Anchor	Value	Detail
NBER (dated to 1 Oct 2026)	not in a dated recession	NBER dates turning points about a year late

Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the published real yield curve. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.