Term Premium · History · 10Y 1.02% — Steepener

The read

Term Premium · History · 25 Sep 2026

10Y 1.02%

on the month: +18bp
rank · 5y: 99th
2s10s: +49bp

History is the complete record of closes a single maturity has printed, in the term premium.

Term Premium 10Y from 27 Sep 2021 to 25 Sep 2026: 10Y currently 1.02%, between −0.16% and 1.03% over the window.

The extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling over short-term debt, split out at every maturity to 10 years using the Kim-Wright model.

Rank

10Y 1.02%: 99th of 1y, 99th of 5y, 99th of 10y, 63rd of since 1990. High is more compensation for holding ten years of duration.

Angles

Curve · 0.36% at the 1Y rising to a high of 1.02% at the 10Y · level bars, shaded by five-year rank; the headline maturity is outlined
Change · +18bp on the month, most at the 5Y (+21bp) · on the month, in basis points; amber rose, blue fell
Percentiles · Against five years the 1Y is highest at 99 and the 2Y lowest at 98 · amber above the median of the window, blue below; a dashed cell has less record than its window
Spread · 2s10s at +49bp, 99th percentile of five years · box is the middle half, tick the median, dotted line is zero

How to read this

What it is

History is the complete record of closes a single maturity has printed, in the term premium. It reaches the earliest print there is, and a break in it marks a session nobody published, never a quiet one.

How to read the chart

Each point is a single close in percent, for the maturity on the button. It is the level itself, not a change or a rank.

Months of direction carry the meaning here; one print rarely does. Widen Show and a big day looks small.

Method

Where a print is missing, the line breaks rather than bridging the gap. Each maturity’s record starts when its own series starts, which leaves the left edge ragged.

Source

Federal Reserve Board · NBER via FRED · fitted term premium estimates, daily · Kim-Wright

Term Premium in detail

25 Sep 2026 · Kim-Wright, Federal Reserve Board via FRED, released in batches so its axis trails Treasury

Curve

Tenor	Term premium	1D	1W	1M	1Y	%ile 5y
1Y	0.36%	0	+3	+11	+29	99
2Y	0.53%	−1	+4	+17	+46	98
3Y	0.62%	−1	+5	+20	+55	99
5Y	0.73%	−1	+6	+21	+59	99
7Y	0.83%	−1	+6	+20	+58	99
10Y	1.02%	0	+6	+18	+54	99

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

Pair	BP	1W	1M	%ile 5y
1s5s	+37bp	+3	+10	99
2s5s	+20bp	+2	+4	99
5s10s	+29bp	+1	−3	59
2s10s	+49bp	+2	+1	99

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
2s5s10s	−9bp	0	+1	+7	77

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
2s5s10s	+19bp	0	+2	+7	94

the fly with 2s10s regressed out over five years

State

Line	Value	Detail
2s10s	+49bp	10Y above 2Y
Month level	+18bp	mean of 2Y and 10Y, over 31 calendar days
Month slope	+1bp	change in 2s10s, over 31 calendar days

Anchors

Anchor	Value	Detail
NBER (dated to 1 Sep 2026)	not in a dated recession	NBER dates turning points about a year late

Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the published term premium curve. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.