Bills · Curve · 2 Oct 2026
3M 4.11%
A curve is what it costs Treasury to borrow across the coming year, from four weeks out to fifty-two.
Treasury Bills on 2 Oct 2026: 7 maturities published, 3.95% at the short end rising to 4.46% at the long end.
Short-term Treasury bill rates from 4 weeks to 52 weeks, quoted coupon-equivalent so they compare with a coupon bond.
Level and slope: 3M 97th of the year; 1M/3M 92nd of the year. Level: high is the government paying more to borrow; slope: high is a steep curve, low is an inverted one.
A curve is what it costs Treasury to borrow across the coming year, from four weeks out to fifty-two. No coupon bond appears on it, so nothing here blends a coupon stream into a rate.
Each dot marks a maturity, its height the rate in percent. The axis is spaced by root years, so the short end stays readable.
Flat or falling puts lower rates ahead in the price. The steeper the climb, the dearer the distant end is priced.
The 1Y sitting 25bp above the 3M says nine more months of lending is paying 25 basis points.
Quoted coupon-equivalent, beside a discount rate that understates a bill, the more so when rates are high. Not a par yield, so nothing is bootstrapped. A 1M over the 3M is the tell.
US Treasury · daily bill rates, coupon-equivalent
2 Oct 2026 · secondary-market bill rates, coupon-equivalent, Treasury’s own feed
| Tenor | Bill rate | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOFR (1 Oct) | 3.87% | −3 | −1 | +21 | −33 | |
| EFFR (1 Oct) | 3.88% | 0 | 0 | +25 | −21 | |
| IORB (1 Oct) | 3.90% | 0 | 0 | +25 | −25 | |
| ON RRP (1 Oct) | 3.75% | 0 | 0 | +25 | −25 | |
| 1M | 3.95% | −1 | −2 | +23 | −17 | 43 |
| 1.5M | 3.98% | −1 | −3 | +17 | −12 | — |
| 2M | 4.04% | −2 | −6 | +22 | −4 | 43 |
| 3M | 4.11% | +1 | −7 | +24 | +16 | 43 |
| 4M | 4.19% | 0 | −7 | +23 | +26 | — |
| 6M | 4.29% | +1 | −7 | +26 | +45 | 51 |
| 1Y | 4.46% | +2 | −2 | +30 | +78 | 63 |
tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar
| Pair | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M/3M | +16bp | +2 | −5 | +1 | 73 |
| 1M/1.5M | +3bp | 0 | −1 | −6 | — |
| 1.5M/2M | +6bp | −1 | −3 | +5 | — |
| 2M/3M | +7bp | +3 | −1 | +2 | 71 |
| 3M/4M | +8bp | −1 | 0 | −1 | — |
| 4M/6M | +10bp | +1 | 0 | +3 | — |
| 6M/1Y | +17bp | +1 | +5 | +4 | 88 |
| 1M/1Y | +51bp | +3 | 0 | +7 | 79 |
long − short, in basis points
| Fly | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M/3M/1Y | −19bp | +1 | −10 | −5 | 15 |
2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral
| Fly | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M/3M/1Y | −30bp | +1 | −10 | −5 | 4 |
the fly with 1M/3M regressed out over five years
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Inverted | 0 of 16 | pairs 2× apart in maturity |
| Deepest | — | nothing counted is inverted |
| Uncounted | — | no inversion between neighbours |
| 1M/3M | not inverted | |
| Month | Bear Steepener | Δ level +22bp · Δ slope +4bp over a month |
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Last episode | 89 sessions | 31 Jul 2025 → 8 Dec 2025 |
| Deepest (5 Sep 2025) | −20bp | |
| Area | 1,064 | basis points × sessions below zero |
| Un-inverted (9 Dec 2025) | 297 days ago | calendar days, not sessions |
| Precedent | 96d | median un-inversion to recession, 26 to 165, n=2. Not a forecast |
1M/3M episodes of 20 sessions or more, since 2 Jan 2002
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 3M vol | 48bp | annualised, 21 sessions |
| Rank · 5y | 68th | |
| Shape share | 1.36 | 1M/3M vol ÷ 3M vol |
realised standard deviation of daily changes, annualised
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | +3.8% | |
| 5y | +20.0% | not annualised |
| Worst fall (17 Sep 2008) | −0.3% | peak to trough, bottoming 22 Sep 2008 |
| Since then | made back |
a rolling 3M par bond, coupon and price. Not a fund
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Four-week bill (1 Oct) | +15bp | |
| Thirteen-week bill (1 Oct) | +31bp | |
| Rank · 5y | 87th |
the bill's yield minus the ON RRP award, award restated on 365
| Anchor | Value | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOFR (1 Oct) | 3.87% | −3 | −1 | +21 | −33 | |
| EFFR (1 Oct) | 3.88% | 0 | 0 | +25 | −21 | |
| IORB (1 Oct) | 3.90% | 0 | 0 | +25 | −25 | |
| ON RRP (1 Oct) | 3.75% | 0 | 0 | +25 | −25 | |
| SOFR−BGCR (1 Oct) | +3bp | +1 | +1 | 0 | −1 | what bilateral cleared repo adds to the broad GC rate inside SOFR |
| NBER (dated to 1 Sep 2026) | not in a dated recession | NBER dates turning points about a year late |
Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the published bill rate curve. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.