Real (TIPS) · Curve · 2 Oct 2026
10Y 2.92%
A curve is what inflation-protected Treasury debt pays at each length, from five years out to thirty.
Real (TIPS) on 2 Oct 2026: 5 maturities published, 2.69% at the short end rising to 3.34% at the long end.
TIPS real yields: the return Treasury bonds pay above inflation once their inflation-linked principal is stripped out.
Level and slope: 10Y 99th of the year; 5s30s 6th of the year. Level: high is a higher real return for lending; slope: high is a steep curve, low is an inverted one.
A curve is what inflation-protected Treasury debt pays at each length, from five years out to thirty. This is a yield net of inflation, and the whole line can sit below zero.
Each dot marks a maturity, its height the rate in percent. The axis is spaced by root years, so the short end stays readable.
Flat or falling puts lower rates ahead in the price. The steeper the climb, the dearer the distant end is priced.
The 10Y sitting 45bp above the 5Y is five more years of maturity priced in, with no inflation compensation in it.
TIPS closes are also bid-side and published since 2003 only. The dashed mark can appear while the count reads zero, because a neighbouring pair can invert on technicals.
US Treasury · daily TIPS par yield curve
2 Oct 2026 · real par yields, Treasury, around 3:30pm ET
| Tenor | Real yield | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y | 2.69% | +4 | +5 | +50 | +137 | 99 |
| 7Y | 2.80% | +4 | +7 | +49 | +125 | 99 |
| 10Y | 2.92% | +4 | +9 | +47 | +112 | 99 |
| 20Y | 3.19% | +3 | +11 | +41 | +94 | 100 |
| 30Y | 3.34% | +3 | +12 | +36 | +85 | 100 |
tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar
| Pair | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s | +23bp | 0 | +4 | −3 | 52 |
| 5s30s | +65bp | −1 | +7 | −14 | 54 |
| 10s30s | +42bp | −1 | +3 | −11 | 58 |
long − short, in basis points
| Fly | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s30s | −19bp | +1 | +1 | +8 | 41 |
2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral
| Fly | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s30s | −4bp | +1 | 0 | +10 | 30 |
the fly with 5s30s regressed out over five years
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Inverted | 0 of 7 | pairs 2× apart in maturity |
| Deepest | — | nothing counted is inverted |
| Uncounted | — | no inversion between neighbours |
| 5s30s | not inverted | |
| Month | Bear Flattener | Δ level +44bp · Δ slope −15bp over a month |
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Last episode | 42 sessions | 11 Aug 2023 → 11 Oct 2023 |
| Deepest (25 Aug 2023) | −20bp | |
| Area | 433 | basis points × sessions below zero |
| Un-inverted (12 Oct 2023) | 1086 days ago | calendar days, not sessions |
5s30s episodes of 20 sessions or more, since 22 Feb 2010
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 10Y vol | 83bp | annualised, 21 sessions |
| Rank · 5y | 56th | |
| Shape share | 0.70 | 5s30s vol ÷ 10Y vol |
realised standard deviation of daily changes, annualised
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | −8.0% | |
| 5y | −25.8% | not annualised |
| Worst fall (3 Aug 2021) | −29.7% | peak to trough, bottoming 25 Oct 2023 |
| Since then | −28.2% |
a rolling 10Y par bond, coupon and price. Not a fund
| Anchor | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| NBER (dated to 1 Sep 2026) | not in a dated recession | NBER dates turning points about a year late |
Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the published real yield curve. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.