Real (TIPS) · Inversion · 2 Oct 2026
inverted 0 of 7
Inversion means a distant maturity yielding beneath a nearer one.
Real (TIPS) pairwise spreads on 2 Oct 2026: 0 of 7 pairs at least twice as long as their short leg are inverted.
TIPS real yields: the return Treasury bonds pay above inflation once their inflation-linked principal is stripped out.
5Y–30Y +65bp: 6th of 1y, 54th of 5y, 53rd of 10y, 34th of since 2010. High is a steep curve, low is an inverted one.
Inversion means a distant maturity yielding beneath a nearer one. The grid counts each pair separately, because a curve turns over in parts and not all at once.
Each cell holds the spread between its row and its column, in basis points. Hatched cells are the inverted ones.
Only pairs twice apart in maturity enter the count, so quirks between neighbours stay out. Neighbours invert on supply alone.
A cell reading −40 has the longer leg paying 40bp less than the shorter, and it is hatched.
Every pair that extends maturity is drawn, including the ones the count leaves out, so a hatched cell can sit beside a count of zero. Read the block, not the cell. A lone pair is usually issuance.
US Treasury · daily TIPS par yield curve · inversion computed here
2 Oct 2026 · real par yields, Treasury, around 3:30pm ET
| Tenor | Real yield | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y | 2.69% | +4 | +5 | +50 | +137 | 99 |
| 7Y | 2.80% | +4 | +7 | +49 | +125 | 99 |
| 10Y | 2.92% | +4 | +9 | +47 | +112 | 99 |
| 20Y | 3.19% | +3 | +11 | +41 | +94 | 100 |
| 30Y | 3.34% | +3 | +12 | +36 | +85 | 100 |
tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar
| Pair | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s | +23bp | 0 | +4 | −3 | 52 |
| 5s30s | +65bp | −1 | +7 | −14 | 54 |
| 10s30s | +42bp | −1 | +3 | −11 | 58 |
long − short, in basis points
| Fly | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s30s | −19bp | +1 | +1 | +8 | 41 |
2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral
| Fly | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s30s | −4bp | +1 | 0 | +10 | 30 |
the fly with 5s30s regressed out over five years
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Inverted | 0 of 7 | pairs 2× apart in maturity |
| Deepest | — | nothing counted is inverted |
| Uncounted | — | no inversion between neighbours |
| 5s30s | not inverted | |
| Month | Bear Flattener | Δ level +44bp · Δ slope −15bp over a month |
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Last episode | 42 sessions | 11 Aug 2023 → 11 Oct 2023 |
| Deepest (25 Aug 2023) | −20bp | |
| Area | 433 | basis points × sessions below zero |
| Un-inverted (12 Oct 2023) | 1086 days ago | calendar days, not sessions |
5s30s episodes of 20 sessions or more, since 22 Feb 2010
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 10Y vol | 83bp | annualised, 21 sessions |
| Rank · 5y | 56th | |
| Shape share | 0.70 | 5s30s vol ÷ 10Y vol |
realised standard deviation of daily changes, annualised
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | −8.0% | |
| 5y | −25.8% | not annualised |
| Worst fall (3 Aug 2021) | −29.7% | peak to trough, bottoming 25 Oct 2023 |
| Since then | −28.2% |
a rolling 10Y par bond, coupon and price. Not a fund
| Anchor | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| NBER (dated to 1 Sep 2026) | not in a dated recession | NBER dates turning points about a year late |
Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the published real yield curve. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.