Real · History · 11 Sep 2026
10Y 2.60%
The record of one maturity, close by close. The Curve cuts across maturities; this cuts along time.
Real Yields 10Y from 13 Sep 2021 to 11 Sep 2026: 10Y currently 2.60%, between −1.17% and 2.60% over the window.
TIPS real yields: the return Treasury bonds pay above inflation once their inflation-linked principal is stripped out.
10Y 2.60%: 100th of 1y, 100th of 5y, 100th of 10y, 98th of since 2003. High is a higher real return for lending ten years.
The record of one maturity, close by close. The Curve cuts across maturities; this cuts along time.
Each point is a single close in percent, for the maturity on the button. It is the level itself, not a change or a rank.
Months of direction carry the meaning here; one print rarely does. Widen Show and a big day looks small.
Where a print is missing, the line breaks rather than bridging the gap. Each maturity’s record starts when its own series starts, which leaves the left edge ragged.
US Treasury · NBER · daily TIPS par yield curve
11 Sep 2026 · real par yields, Treasury, around 3:30pm ET
| Tenor | Real yield | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y | 2.38% | +9 | +23 | +24 | +120 | 98 |
| 7Y | 2.48% | +7 | +21 | +22 | +104 | 99 |
| 10Y | 2.60% | +5 | +18 | +18 | +88 | 100 |
| 20Y | 2.89% | +2 | +13 | +11 | +67 | 100 |
| 30Y | 3.07% | +2 | +11 | +8 | +59 | 100 |
tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar
| Pair | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s | +22bp | −4 | −5 | −6 | 50 |
| 5s30s | +69bp | −7 | −12 | −16 | 54 |
| 10s30s | +47bp | −3 | −7 | −10 | 60 |
long − short, in basis points
| Fly | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s30s | −25bp | −1 | +2 | +4 | 23 |
2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral
| Fly | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s30s | −11bp | 0 | +3 | +6 | 18 |
the fly with 5s30s regressed out over five years
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Inverted | 0 of 7 | pairs 2× apart in maturity |
| Deepest | — | nothing counted is inverted |
| Uncounted | — | no inversion between neighbours |
| 5s30s | not inverted | |
| Month | Bear Flattener | Δ level +15bp · Δ slope −15bp over a month |
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Last episode | 42 sessions | 11 Aug 2023 → 11 Oct 2023 |
| Deepest (25 Aug 2023) | −20bp | |
| Area | 433 | basis points × sessions below zero |
| Un-inverted (12 Oct 2023) | 1065 days ago | calendar days, not sessions |
5s30s episodes of 20 sessions or more, since 22 Feb 2010
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 10Y vol | 63bp | annualised, 21 sessions |
| Rank · 5y | 29th | |
| Shape share | 0.80 | 5s30s vol ÷ 10Y vol |
realised standard deviation of daily changes, annualised
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | −6.2% | |
| 5y | −25.1% | not annualised |
| Worst fall (3 Aug 2021) | −29.7% | peak to trough, bottoming 25 Oct 2023 |
| Since then | −26.3% |
a rolling 10Y par bond, coupon and price. Not a fund
| Anchor | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| NBER (dated to 1 Aug 2026) | not in a dated recession | NBER dates turning points about a year late |
Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the published real yield curve. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.