TIPS Real Yields · Level/Slope/Curvature · 10Y 2.92% — Steepener

The read

Real (TIPS) · Level/Slope/Curvature · 2 Oct 2026

10Y 2.92%

5s30s: +65bp
5s10s30s: −19bp
rank · 5y: 99th

Principal components are the few shapes that account for most of how a curve moves.

Real (TIPS) decomposed into 3 components over 4 Oct 2021 to 2 Oct 2026, fit on 5 maturities (5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 20Y, 30Y), explaining 99.9% of variance.

TIPS real yields: the return Treasury bonds pay above inflation once their inflation-linked principal is stripped out.

Angles

Change · +47bp on the month, most at the 5Y (+50bp) · on the month, in basis points; amber rose, blue fell
Spread · 5s30s at +65bp, 54th percentile of five years · box is the middle half, tick the median, dotted line is zero
Butterfly · 5s10s30s at −19bp, 41st percentile of five years · left on the scale is a rich belly, right is a cheap belly
Curve · 2.69% at the 5Y rising to a high of 3.34% at the 30Y · level bars, shaded by five-year rank; the headline maturity is outlined

How to read this

What it is

Principal components are the few shapes that account for most of how a curve moves. The biggest three are a level shift, a slope tilt and a curvature bend.

How to read the chart

Every line is a score, not a rate. Zero is the average shape over the fit, and the sign says which way it leans.

Level usually carries the bulk of a day. When slope jumps instead, the two ends pulled apart.

Method

The components are estimated from a window of history and computed here, not published anywhere. Signs are pinned on purpose; left free they flip between fits and reverse every history.

Source

US Treasury · NBER · daily TIPS par yield curve · level/slope/curvature computed here

Real (TIPS) in detail

2 Oct 2026 · real par yields, Treasury, around 3:30pm ET

Curve

Tenor	Real yield	1D	1W	1M	1Y	%ile 5y
5Y	2.69%	+4	+5	+50	+137	99
7Y	2.80%	+4	+7	+49	+125	99
10Y	2.92%	+4	+9	+47	+112	99
20Y	3.19%	+3	+11	+41	+94	100
30Y	3.34%	+3	+12	+36	+85	100

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

Pair	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
5s10s	+23bp	0	+4	−3	52
5s30s	+65bp	−1	+7	−14	54
10s30s	+42bp	−1	+3	−11	58

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
5s10s30s	−19bp	+1	+1	+8	41

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
5s10s30s	−4bp	+1	0	+10	30

the fly with 5s30s regressed out over five years

State

Line	Value	Detail
Inverted	0 of 7	pairs 2× apart in maturity
Deepest	—	nothing counted is inverted
Uncounted	—	no inversion between neighbours
5s30s	not inverted
Month	Bear Flattener	Δ level +44bp · Δ slope −15bp over a month

This inversion

Line	Value	Detail
Last episode	42 sessions	11 Aug 2023 → 11 Oct 2023
Deepest (25 Aug 2023)	−20bp
Area	433	basis points × sessions below zero
Un-inverted (12 Oct 2023)	1086 days ago	calendar days, not sessions

5s30s episodes of 20 sessions or more, since 22 Feb 2010

Volatility

Line	Value	Detail
10Y vol	83bp	annualised, 21 sessions
Rank · 5y	56th
Shape share	0.70	5s30s vol ÷ 10Y vol

realised standard deviation of daily changes, annualised

Held, not watched

Line	Value	Detail
1y	−8.0%
5y	−25.8%	not annualised
Worst fall (3 Aug 2021)	−29.7%	peak to trough, bottoming 25 Oct 2023
Since then	−28.2%

a rolling 10Y par bond, coupon and price. Not a fund

Anchors

Anchor	Value	Detail
NBER (dated to 1 Sep 2026)	not in a dated recession	NBER dates turning points about a year late

Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the published real yield curve. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.