Real · Rank · 11 Sep 2026
10Y 2.60%
Percentiles scores everything on one day. This follows one series’ place within its record, day by day.
Real Yields 10Y rank from 13 Sep 2021 to 11 Sep 2026, against five years: 10Y currently at the 100th percentile, between the 1st and the 100th across the sessions shown.
TIPS real yields: the return Treasury bonds pay above inflation once their inflation-linked principal is stripped out.
10Y 2.60%: 100th of 1y, 100th of 5y, 100th of 10y, 98th of since 2003. High is a higher real return for lending ten years.
Percentiles scores everything on one day. This follows one series’ place within its record, day by day.
Over sets the stretch. 100 marks its top; the bottom just tags whatever scored lowest, not a fixed number.
Parked above 90 for months means a level has been accepted, not spiked to. Crossing 50 flips it to the far half.
Scoring 98 against five years after 67 twelve months earlier, a series has spent the year climbing through its record.
The lookback is the claim, not the zoom. The same session can score near the top over five years and mid-pack over twenty. A series pinned at 100 has nowhere left to go, so the level matters too.
US Treasury · NBER · daily TIPS par yield curve · rank computed here
11 Sep 2026 · real par yields, Treasury, around 3:30pm ET
| Tenor | Real yield | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y | 2.38% | +9 | +23 | +24 | +120 | 98 |
| 7Y | 2.48% | +7 | +21 | +22 | +104 | 99 |
| 10Y | 2.60% | +5 | +18 | +18 | +88 | 100 |
| 20Y | 2.89% | +2 | +13 | +11 | +67 | 100 |
| 30Y | 3.07% | +2 | +11 | +8 | +59 | 100 |
tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar
| Pair | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s | +22bp | −4 | −5 | −6 | 50 |
| 5s30s | +69bp | −7 | −12 | −16 | 54 |
| 10s30s | +47bp | −3 | −7 | −10 | 60 |
long − short, in basis points
| Fly | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s30s | −25bp | −1 | +2 | +4 | 23 |
2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral
| Fly | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s30s | −11bp | 0 | +3 | +6 | 18 |
the fly with 5s30s regressed out over five years
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Inverted | 0 of 7 | pairs 2× apart in maturity |
| Deepest | — | nothing counted is inverted |
| Uncounted | — | no inversion between neighbours |
| 5s30s | not inverted | |
| Month | Bear Flattener | Δ level +15bp · Δ slope −15bp over a month |
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Last episode | 42 sessions | 11 Aug 2023 → 11 Oct 2023 |
| Deepest (25 Aug 2023) | −20bp | |
| Area | 433 | basis points × sessions below zero |
| Un-inverted (12 Oct 2023) | 1065 days ago | calendar days, not sessions |
5s30s episodes of 20 sessions or more, since 22 Feb 2010
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 10Y vol | 63bp | annualised, 21 sessions |
| Rank · 5y | 29th | |
| Shape share | 0.80 | 5s30s vol ÷ 10Y vol |
realised standard deviation of daily changes, annualised
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | −6.2% | |
| 5y | −25.1% | not annualised |
| Worst fall (3 Aug 2021) | −29.7% | peak to trough, bottoming 25 Oct 2023 |
| Since then | −26.3% |
a rolling 10Y par bond, coupon and price. Not a fund
| Anchor | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| NBER (dated to 1 Aug 2026) | not in a dated recession | NBER dates turning points about a year late |
Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the published real yield curve. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.