TIPS Real Yields · Rank · 10Y 2.63% — Steepener

The read

Real (TIPS) · Rank · 6 Nov 2026

10Y 2.63%

rank · 5y: 97th
on the month: −29bp
5s30s rank · 5y: 57th

Rank follows one series’ percentile through time, so one score becomes a line.

Real (TIPS) 10Y rank from 8 Nov 2021 to 6 Nov 2026, against five years: 10Y currently at the 97th percentile, between the 1st and the 100th across the sessions shown.

TIPS real yields: the return Treasury bonds pay above inflation once their inflation-linked principal is stripped out.

Rank

10Y 2.63%: 88th of 1y, 97th of 5y, 98th of 10y, 98th of since 2003. High is a higher real return for lending ten years.

Angles

History · 10Y at or above its five-year median of 1.85% for 163 sessions, 220 of the last 250 at or above · the last year of sessions split by today’s five-year median
Percentiles · Against five years the 7Y is highest at 97 and the 5Y lowest at 95 · amber above the median of the window, blue below; a dashed cell has less record than its window
Curve · 2.35% at the 5Y rising to a high of 3.07% at the 30Y · level bars, shaded by five-year rank; the headline maturity is outlined
Change · −29bp on the month, most at the 5Y (−31bp) · on the month, in basis points; amber rose, blue fell

How to read this

What it is

Rank follows one series’ percentile through time, so one score becomes a line. It draws a standing inside the record, not the reading behind it.

How to read the chart

Over sets the stretch. 100 marks its top; the bottom just tags whatever scored lowest, not a fixed number.

Parked above 90 for months means a level has been accepted, not spiked to. Crossing 50 flips it to the far half.

Scoring 98 against five years after 67 twelve months earlier, a series has spent the year climbing through its record.

Method

The lookback is the claim, not the zoom. The same session can score near the top over five years and mid-pack over twenty. A series pinned at 100 has nowhere left to go, so the level matters too.

Source

US Treasury · NBER · daily TIPS par yield curve · rank computed here

Real (TIPS) in detail

6 Nov 2026 · real par yields, Treasury, around 3:30pm ET

Curve

Tenor	Real yield	1D	1W	1M	1Y	%ile 5y
5Y	2.35%	+2	+10	−31	+104	95
7Y	2.48%	+2	+6	−30	+93	97
10Y	2.63%	+3	+3	−29	+82	97
20Y	2.91%	+1	−1	−29	+67	97
30Y	3.07%	+2	−1	−29	+62	97

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

Pair	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
5s10s	+28bp	+1	−7	+2	57
5s30s	+72bp	0	−11	+2	57
10s30s	+44bp	−1	−4	0	61

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
5s10s30s	−16bp	+2	−3	+2	51

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
5s10s30s	−2bp	+2	−2	+2	38

the fly with 5s30s regressed out over five years

State

Line	Value	Detail
Inverted	0 of 7	pairs 2× apart in maturity
Deepest	—	nothing counted is inverted
Uncounted	—	no inversion between neighbours
5s30s	not inverted
Month	Bull Steepener	Δ level −29bp · Δ slope +3bp over a month

This inversion

Line	Value	Detail
Last episode	42 sessions	11 Aug 2023 → 11 Oct 2023
Deepest (25 Aug 2023)	−20bp
Area	433	basis points × sessions below zero
Un-inverted (12 Oct 2023)	1121 days ago	calendar days, not sessions

5s30s episodes of 20 sessions or more, since 22 Feb 2010

Volatility

Line	Value	Detail
10Y vol	66bp	annualised, 21 sessions
Rank · 5y	33rd
Shape share	1.10	5s30s vol ÷ 10Y vol

realised standard deviation of daily changes, annualised

Held, not watched

Line	Value	Detail
1y	−4.9%
5y	−25.1%	not annualised
Worst fall (3 Aug 2021)	−29.7%	peak to trough, bottoming 25 Oct 2023
Since then	−26.1%

a rolling 10Y par bond, coupon and price. Not a fund

Anchors

Anchor	Value	Detail
NBER (dated to 1 Oct 2026)	not in a dated recession	NBER dates turning points about a year late

Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the published real yield curve. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.