Bills · Percentiles · 2 Oct 2026
rank · 5y 43rd
A percentile is today’s place inside its own record.
Treasury Bills on 2 Oct 2026 against its five years range: 1Y sits highest at the 63rd percentile, 2M lowest at the 43rd. Not drawn: 1.5M, 4M, too little record to rank against this window.
Short-term Treasury bill rates from 4 weeks to 52 weeks, quoted coupon-equivalent so they compare with a coupon bond.
3M 4.11%: 97th of 1y, 43rd of 5y, 71st of 10y, 81st of since 2002. High is the government paying more to borrow for three months.
A percentile is today’s place inside its own record. At the 90th, only one day in ten came in higher. Each series is scored on its history and on nothing else.
Solid is today, dashed the median across that window. The pale band is the full range and the darker one the middle half.
A high rank puts today among the highest readings in its window, not high outright. The window decides whose history that is.
At the 80th percentile, the bill rate sat below today on four days in five across the window.
A number means nothing on its own here; the window carries the claim. Widen Over and today slides from the edge of the range toward the middle, with the rate unchanged.
US Treasury · daily bill rates, coupon-equivalent · percentiles computed here
2 Oct 2026 · secondary-market bill rates, coupon-equivalent, Treasury’s own feed
| Tenor | Bill rate | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOFR (1 Oct) | 3.87% | −3 | −1 | +21 | −33 | |
| EFFR (1 Oct) | 3.88% | 0 | 0 | +25 | −21 | |
| IORB (1 Oct) | 3.90% | 0 | 0 | +25 | −25 | |
| ON RRP (1 Oct) | 3.75% | 0 | 0 | +25 | −25 | |
| 1M | 3.95% | −1 | −2 | +23 | −17 | 43 |
| 1.5M | 3.98% | −1 | −3 | +17 | −12 | — |
| 2M | 4.04% | −2 | −6 | +22 | −4 | 43 |
| 3M | 4.11% | +1 | −7 | +24 | +16 | 43 |
| 4M | 4.19% | 0 | −7 | +23 | +26 | — |
| 6M | 4.29% | +1 | −7 | +26 | +45 | 51 |
| 1Y | 4.46% | +2 | −2 | +30 | +78 | 63 |
tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar
| Pair | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M/3M | +16bp | +2 | −5 | +1 | 73 |
| 1M/1.5M | +3bp | 0 | −1 | −6 | — |
| 1.5M/2M | +6bp | −1 | −3 | +5 | — |
| 2M/3M | +7bp | +3 | −1 | +2 | 71 |
| 3M/4M | +8bp | −1 | 0 | −1 | — |
| 4M/6M | +10bp | +1 | 0 | +3 | — |
| 6M/1Y | +17bp | +1 | +5 | +4 | 88 |
| 1M/1Y | +51bp | +3 | 0 | +7 | 79 |
long − short, in basis points
| Fly | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M/3M/1Y | −19bp | +1 | −10 | −5 | 15 |
2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral
| Fly | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M/3M/1Y | −30bp | +1 | −10 | −5 | 4 |
the fly with 1M/3M regressed out over five years
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Inverted | 0 of 16 | pairs 2× apart in maturity |
| Deepest | — | nothing counted is inverted |
| Uncounted | — | no inversion between neighbours |
| 1M/3M | not inverted | |
| Month | Bear Steepener | Δ level +22bp · Δ slope +4bp over a month |
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Last episode | 89 sessions | 31 Jul 2025 → 8 Dec 2025 |
| Deepest (5 Sep 2025) | −20bp | |
| Area | 1,064 | basis points × sessions below zero |
| Un-inverted (9 Dec 2025) | 297 days ago | calendar days, not sessions |
| Precedent | 96d | median un-inversion to recession, 26 to 165, n=2. Not a forecast |
1M/3M episodes of 20 sessions or more, since 2 Jan 2002
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 3M vol | 48bp | annualised, 21 sessions |
| Rank · 5y | 68th | |
| Shape share | 1.36 | 1M/3M vol ÷ 3M vol |
realised standard deviation of daily changes, annualised
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | +3.8% | |
| 5y | +20.0% | not annualised |
| Worst fall (17 Sep 2008) | −0.3% | peak to trough, bottoming 22 Sep 2008 |
| Since then | made back |
a rolling 3M par bond, coupon and price. Not a fund
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Four-week bill (1 Oct) | +15bp | |
| Thirteen-week bill (1 Oct) | +31bp | |
| Rank · 5y | 87th |
the bill's yield minus the ON RRP award, award restated on 365
| Anchor | Value | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOFR (1 Oct) | 3.87% | −3 | −1 | +21 | −33 | |
| EFFR (1 Oct) | 3.88% | 0 | 0 | +25 | −21 | |
| IORB (1 Oct) | 3.90% | 0 | 0 | +25 | −25 | |
| ON RRP (1 Oct) | 3.75% | 0 | 0 | +25 | −25 | |
| SOFR−BGCR (1 Oct) | +3bp | +1 | +1 | 0 | −1 | what bilateral cleared repo adds to the broad GC rate inside SOFR |
| NBER (dated to 1 Sep 2026) | not in a dated recession | NBER dates turning points about a year late |
Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the published bill rate curve. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.