Treasury Bills · Change · 3M 4.11% — Steepener

The read

Bills · Change · 2 Oct 2026

on the month +24bp

3M: 4.11%
1M/3M on the month: +1bp
rank · 5y: 43rd

Change subtracts an earlier bill rate from a later one and prints the gap in basis points.

Treasury Bills change over one day to 2 Oct 2026: 7 maturities moved between −2bp and +2bp, with 1M and 3M averaging 0bp.

Short-term Treasury bill rates from 4 weeks to 52 weeks, quoted coupon-equivalent so they compare with a coupon bond.

Angles

Volatility · 3M moved +1bp today against a typical day of 3.0bp · the last 21 sessions placed by size, never by date; the band is one typical day
Curve · 3.95% at the 1M rising to a high of 4.46% at the 1Y · level bars, shaded by five-year rank; the headline maturity is outlined
Moves · On the month the 1Y moved most, +30bp; on the year the 1Y, +78bp · signed change in bp, each row shaded against its own horizon; amber rose, blue fell
Spread · 1M/3M at +16bp, 73rd percentile of five years · box is the middle half, tick the median, dotted line is zero

How to read this

What it is

Change subtracts an earlier bill rate from a later one and prints the gap in basis points. Whichever window you set, the arithmetic underneath is that one subtraction.

How to read the chart

Above the zero rule the bill rate rose over your chosen window, below it fell. The scale is basis points, not percent.

One maturity moving alone reprices that stretch by itself. Most days shift a handful of basis points; twenty is a lot.

Set Since to one day and a maturity closing 12bp higher prints +12; set it to a month and the same day can print −24.

Method

A rise here means bond prices fell; price and yield run opposite ways. The window you pick decides what counts as big, and a week and a quarter are not read alike.

Source

US Treasury · daily bill rates, coupon-equivalent · change computed here

Treasury Bills in detail

2 Oct 2026 · secondary-market bill rates, coupon-equivalent, Treasury’s own feed

Curve

Tenor	Bill rate	1D	1W	1M	1Y	%ile 5y
SOFR (1 Oct)	3.87%	−3	−1	+21	−33
EFFR (1 Oct)	3.88%	0	0	+25	−21
IORB (1 Oct)	3.90%	0	0	+25	−25
ON RRP (1 Oct)	3.75%	0	0	+25	−25
1M	3.95%	−1	−2	+23	−17	43
1.5M	3.98%	−1	−3	+17	−12	—
2M	4.04%	−2	−6	+22	−4	43
3M	4.11%	+1	−7	+24	+16	43
4M	4.19%	0	−7	+23	+26	—
6M	4.29%	+1	−7	+26	+45	51
1Y	4.46%	+2	−2	+30	+78	63

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

Pair	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
1M/3M	+16bp	+2	−5	+1	73
1M/1.5M	+3bp	0	−1	−6	—
1.5M/2M	+6bp	−1	−3	+5	—
2M/3M	+7bp	+3	−1	+2	71
3M/4M	+8bp	−1	0	−1	—
4M/6M	+10bp	+1	0	+3	—
6M/1Y	+17bp	+1	+5	+4	88
1M/1Y	+51bp	+3	0	+7	79

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
1M/3M/1Y	−19bp	+1	−10	−5	15

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
1M/3M/1Y	−30bp	+1	−10	−5	4

the fly with 1M/3M regressed out over five years

State

Line	Value	Detail
Inverted	0 of 16	pairs 2× apart in maturity
Deepest	—	nothing counted is inverted
Uncounted	—	no inversion between neighbours
1M/3M	not inverted
Month	Bear Steepener	Δ level +22bp · Δ slope +4bp over a month

This inversion

Line	Value	Detail
Last episode	89 sessions	31 Jul 2025 → 8 Dec 2025
Deepest (5 Sep 2025)	−20bp
Area	1,064	basis points × sessions below zero
Un-inverted (9 Dec 2025)	297 days ago	calendar days, not sessions
Precedent	96d	median un-inversion to recession, 26 to 165, n=2. Not a forecast

1M/3M episodes of 20 sessions or more, since 2 Jan 2002

Volatility

Line	Value	Detail
3M vol	48bp	annualised, 21 sessions
Rank · 5y	68th
Shape share	1.36	1M/3M vol ÷ 3M vol

realised standard deviation of daily changes, annualised

Held, not watched

Line	Value	Detail
1y	+3.8%
5y	+20.0%	not annualised
Worst fall (17 Sep 2008)	−0.3%	peak to trough, bottoming 22 Sep 2008
Since then	made back

a rolling 3M par bond, coupon and price. Not a fund

Against the floor

Line	Value	Detail
Four-week bill (1 Oct)	+15bp
Thirteen-week bill (1 Oct)	+31bp
Rank · 5y	87th

the bill's yield minus the ON RRP award, award restated on 365

Anchors

Anchor	Value	1D	1W	1M	1Y	Detail
SOFR (1 Oct)	3.87%	−3	−1	+21	−33
EFFR (1 Oct)	3.88%	0	0	+25	−21
IORB (1 Oct)	3.90%	0	0	+25	−25
ON RRP (1 Oct)	3.75%	0	0	+25	−25
SOFR−BGCR (1 Oct)	+3bp	+1	+1	0	−1	what bilateral cleared repo adds to the broad GC rate inside SOFR
NBER (dated to 1 Sep 2026)	not in a dated recession					NBER dates turning points about a year late

Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the published bill rate curve. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.