Term Premium · Curve · 10Y 1.02% — Steepener

The read

Term Premium · Curve · 25 Sep 2026

10Y 1.02%

2s10s: +49bp
rank · 5y: 99th
2s5s10s: −9bp

This curve holds the premium a longer Treasury pays above rolling short ones, through ten years.

Term Premium on 25 Sep 2026: 6 maturities published, 0.36% at the short end rising to 1.02% at the long end.

The extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling over short-term debt, split out at every maturity to 10 years using the Kim-Wright model.

Rank

Level and slope: 10Y 99th of the year; 2s10s 96th of the year. Level: high is more compensation for holding duration; slope: high is more compensation demanded further out, low is less.

Level·10Y1.02%Percentilehigh is more compensation for holding duration

Slope·2s10s+49bpPercentilehigh is more compensation demanded further out, low is less

Angles

Percentiles · Against five years the 1Y is highest at 99 and the 2Y lowest at 98 · amber above the median of the window, blue below; a dashed cell has less record than its window
Change · +18bp on the month, most at the 5Y (+21bp) · on the month, in basis points; amber rose, blue fell
History · 10Y at or above its five-year median of 0.42% for 232 sessions, 249 of the last 250 at or above · the last year of sessions split by today’s five-year median
Spread · 2s10s at +49bp, 99th percentile of five years · box is the middle half, tick the median, dotted line is zero

How to read this

What it is

This curve holds the premium a longer Treasury pays above rolling short ones, through ten years. Nobody quotes this; it is worked out of prices by a model.

How to read the chart

Each dot marks a maturity, its height the premium that maturity carries, on a scale of yield points.

Rising to the right means the premium builds with horizon. Flat says far years are compensated no better than near ones.

The 10Y sitting 30bp above the 5Y says the later years carry more premium than the nearer ones.

Method

Kim-Wright is a model estimate from Fed research and lags Treasury by days to weeks. It is quoted zero-coupon, so it squares with fitted zeros, not par yields. Treat sudden jumps as revisions first.

Source

Federal Reserve Board via FRED · fitted term premium estimates, daily · Kim-Wright

Term Premium in detail

25 Sep 2026 · Kim-Wright, Federal Reserve Board via FRED, released in batches so its axis trails Treasury

Curve

Tenor	Term premium	1D	1W	1M	1Y	%ile 5y
1Y	0.36%	0	+3	+11	+29	99
2Y	0.53%	−1	+4	+17	+46	98
3Y	0.62%	−1	+5	+20	+55	99
5Y	0.73%	−1	+6	+21	+59	99
7Y	0.83%	−1	+6	+20	+58	99
10Y	1.02%	0	+6	+18	+54	99

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

Pair	BP	1W	1M	%ile 5y
1s5s	+37bp	+3	+10	99
2s5s	+20bp	+2	+4	99
5s10s	+29bp	+1	−3	59
2s10s	+49bp	+2	+1	99

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
2s5s10s	−9bp	0	+1	+7	77

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
2s5s10s	+19bp	0	+2	+7	94

the fly with 2s10s regressed out over five years

State

Line	Value	Detail
2s10s	+49bp	10Y above 2Y
Month level	+18bp	mean of 2Y and 10Y, over 31 calendar days
Month slope	+1bp	change in 2s10s, over 31 calendar days

Anchors

Anchor	Value	Detail
NBER (dated to 1 Sep 2026)	not in a dated recession	NBER dates turning points about a year late

Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the published term premium curve. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.