Term Premium · History · 10Y 0.89% — Steepener

The read

Term Premium · History · 4 Sep 2026

10Y 0.89%

on the month: +5bp
rank · 5y: 99th
2s10s: +48bp

The record of one maturity, close by close. The Curve cuts across maturities; this cuts along time.

Term Premium 10Y from 7 Sep 2021 to 4 Sep 2026: 10Y currently 0.89%, between −0.23% and 0.90% over the window.

The extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling over short-term debt, split out at every maturity to 10 years using the Kim-Wright model.

Rank

10Y 0.89%: 99th of 1y, 99th of 5y, 99th of 10y, 57th of since 1990. High is more compensation for holding ten years of duration.

Angles

Curve · 0.28% at the 1Y rising to a high of 0.89% at the 10Y
Change · +5bp on the month, most at the 5Y (+6bp)
Percentiles · Against five years the 7Y is highest at 99 and the 2Y lowest at 93
Spread · 2s10s at +48bp, 98th percentile of five years

How to read this

What it is

The record of one maturity, close by close. The Curve cuts across maturities; this cuts along time.

How to read the chart

Each point is a single close in percent, for the maturity on the button. It is the level itself, not a change or a rank.

Months of direction carry the meaning here; one print rarely does. Widen Show and a big day looks small.

Method

Where a print is missing, the line breaks rather than bridging the gap. Each maturity’s record starts when its own series starts, which leaves the left edge ragged.

Source

Federal Reserve Board · NBER via FRED · fitted term premium estimates, daily · Kim-Wright

Term Premium in detail

4 Sep 2026 · Kim-Wright, Federal Reserve Board via FRED, released in batches so its axis trails Treasury

Curve

Tenor	Term premium	1D	1W	1M	1Y	%ile 5y
1Y	0.28%	+1	+1	+3	+24	94
2Y	0.41%	+1	+2	+5	+37	93
3Y	0.48%	+1	+2	+5	+44	94
5Y	0.58%	+1	+2	+6	+47	98
7Y	0.69%	+1	+2	+6	+45	99
10Y	0.89%	+1	+1	+5	+41	99

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

Pair	BP	1W	1M	%ile 5y
1s5s	+30bp	+1	+3	99
2s5s	+17bp	0	+1	99
5s10s	+31bp	−1	−1	70
2s10s	+48bp	−1	+1	98

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
2s5s10s	−14bp	0	+1	+2	72

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
2s5s10s	+14bp	0	+1	+2	91

the fly with 2s10s regressed out over five years

State

Line	Value	Detail
2s10s	+48bp	10Y above 2Y
Month level	+6bp	mean of 2Y and 10Y, over 31 calendar days
Month slope	+2bp	change in 2s10s, over 31 calendar days

Anchors

Anchor	Value	Detail
NBER (dated to 1 Aug 2026)	not in a dated recession	NBER dates turning points about a year late

Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the published term premium curve. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.