Term Premium · History · 10Y 0.91% — Steepener

The read

Term Premium · History · 30 Oct 2026

10Y 0.91%

on the month: −17bp
rank · 5y: 97th
2s10s: +46bp

History is the complete record of closes a single maturity has printed, in the term premium.

Term Premium 10Y from 1 Nov 2021 to 30 Oct 2026: 10Y currently 0.91%, between −0.16% and 1.10% over the window.

The extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling over short-term debt, split out at every maturity to 10 years using the Kim-Wright model.

Rank

10Y 0.91%: 86th of 1y, 97th of 5y, 98th of 10y, 58th of since 1990. High is more compensation for holding ten years of duration.

Angles

Curve · 0.30% at the 1Y rising to a high of 0.91% at the 10Y · level bars, shaded by five-year rank; the headline maturity is outlined
Change · −17bp on the month, most at the 10Y (−17bp) · on the month, in basis points; amber rose, blue fell
Percentiles · Against five years the 7Y is highest at 97 and the 1Y lowest at 92 · amber above the median of the window, blue below; a dashed cell has less record than its window
Spread · 2s10s at +46bp, 92nd percentile of five years · box is the middle half, tick the median, dotted line is zero

How to read this

What it is

History is the complete record of closes a single maturity has printed, in the term premium. It reaches the earliest print there is, and a break in it marks a session nobody published, never a quiet one.

How to read the chart

Each point is a single close in percent, for the maturity on the button. It is the level itself, not a change or a rank.

Months of direction carry the meaning here; one print rarely does. Widen Show and a big day looks small.

Method

Where a print is missing, the line breaks rather than bridging the gap. Each maturity’s record starts when its own series starts, which leaves the left edge ragged.

Source

Federal Reserve Board · NBER via FRED · fitted term premium estimates, daily · Kim-Wright

Term Premium in detail

30 Oct 2026 · Kim-Wright, Federal Reserve Board via FRED, released in batches so its axis trails Treasury

Curve

Tenor	Term premium	1D	1W	1M	1Y	%ile 5y
1Y	0.30%	−1	−1	−7	+24	92
2Y	0.44%	−2	−1	−11	+38	92
3Y	0.52%	−2	−2	−13	+45	93
5Y	0.62%	−2	−2	−15	+49	96
7Y	0.72%	−2	−2	−16	+49	97
10Y	0.91%	−2	−3	−17	+46	97

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

Pair	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
1s5s	+31bp	−1	−1	−8	97
2s5s	+17bp	−1	−1	−4	97
5s10s	+29bp	0	−1	−2	57
2s10s	+46bp	−1	−1	−6	92

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
2s5s10s	−12bp	−1	0	−3	72

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
2s5s10s	+14bp	−1	−1	−6	88

the fly with 2s10s regressed out over five years

State

Line	Value	Detail
2s10s	+46bp	10Y above 2Y
Month level	−12bp	mean of 2Y and 10Y, over 31 calendar days
Month slope	−5bp	change in 2s10s, over 31 calendar days

Anchors

Anchor	Value	Detail
NBER (dated to 1 Oct 2026)	not in a dated recession	NBER dates turning points about a year late

Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the published term premium curve. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.