Term Premium · Rank · 10Y 0.91% — Steepener

The read

Term Premium · Rank · 30 Oct 2026

10Y 0.91%

rank · 5y: 97th
on the month: −17bp
2s10s rank · 5y: 92nd

Rank follows one series’ percentile through time, so one score becomes a line.

Term Premium 10Y rank from 1 Nov 2021 to 30 Oct 2026, against five years: 10Y currently at the 97th percentile, between the 41st and the 100th across the sessions shown.

The extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling over short-term debt, split out at every maturity to 10 years using the Kim-Wright model.

Rank

10Y 0.91%: 86th of 1y, 97th of 5y, 98th of 10y, 58th of since 1990. High is more compensation for holding ten years of duration.

Angles

History · 10Y at or above its five-year median of 0.44% for 255 sessions, 250 of the last 250 at or above · the last year of sessions split by today’s five-year median
Percentiles · Against five years the 7Y is highest at 97 and the 1Y lowest at 92 · amber above the median of the window, blue below; a dashed cell has less record than its window
Curve · 0.30% at the 1Y rising to a high of 0.91% at the 10Y · level bars, shaded by five-year rank; the headline maturity is outlined
Change · −17bp on the month, most at the 10Y (−17bp) · on the month, in basis points; amber rose, blue fell

How to read this

What it is

Rank follows one series’ percentile through time, so one score becomes a line. It draws a standing inside the record, not the reading behind it.

How to read the chart

Over sets the stretch. 100 marks its top; the bottom just tags whatever scored lowest, not a fixed number.

A premium near 100 against five years can sit mid-record, since that record holds the 1990s. Read both lookbacks together.

Scoring 98 against five years after 67 twelve months earlier, a series has spent the year climbing through its record.

Method

The lookback is the claim, not the zoom. The same session can score near the top over five years and mid-pack over twenty. A series pinned at 100 has nowhere left to go, so the level matters too.

Source

Federal Reserve Board · NBER via FRED · fitted term premium estimates, daily · Kim-Wright · rank computed here

Term Premium in detail

30 Oct 2026 · Kim-Wright, Federal Reserve Board via FRED, released in batches so its axis trails Treasury

Curve

Tenor	Term premium	1D	1W	1M	1Y	%ile 5y
1Y	0.30%	−1	−1	−7	+24	92
2Y	0.44%	−2	−1	−11	+38	92
3Y	0.52%	−2	−2	−13	+45	93
5Y	0.62%	−2	−2	−15	+49	96
7Y	0.72%	−2	−2	−16	+49	97
10Y	0.91%	−2	−3	−17	+46	97

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

Pair	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
1s5s	+31bp	−1	−1	−8	97
2s5s	+17bp	−1	−1	−4	97
5s10s	+29bp	0	−1	−2	57
2s10s	+46bp	−1	−1	−6	92

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
2s5s10s	−12bp	−1	0	−3	72

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
2s5s10s	+14bp	−1	−1	−6	88

the fly with 2s10s regressed out over five years

State

Line	Value	Detail
2s10s	+46bp	10Y above 2Y
Month level	−12bp	mean of 2Y and 10Y, over 31 calendar days
Month slope	−5bp	change in 2s10s, over 31 calendar days

Anchors

Anchor	Value	Detail
NBER (dated to 1 Oct 2026)	not in a dated recession	NBER dates turning points about a year late

Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the published term premium curve. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.