Real (TIPS) · Rank · 2 Oct 2026
10Y 2.92%
Rank follows one series’ percentile through time, so one score becomes a line.
Real (TIPS) 10Y rank from 4 Oct 2021 to 2 Oct 2026, against five years: 10Y currently at the 99th percentile, between the 1st and the 100th across the sessions shown.
TIPS real yields: the return Treasury bonds pay above inflation once their inflation-linked principal is stripped out.
10Y 2.92%: 99th of 1y, 99th of 5y, 99th of 10y, 99th of since 2003. High is a higher real return for lending ten years.
Rank follows one series’ percentile through time, so one score becomes a line. It draws a standing inside the record, not the reading behind it.
Over sets the stretch. 100 marks its top; the bottom just tags whatever scored lowest, not a fixed number.
Parked above 90 for months means a level has been accepted, not spiked to. Crossing 50 flips it to the far half.
Scoring 98 against five years after 67 twelve months earlier, a series has spent the year climbing through its record.
The lookback is the claim, not the zoom. The same session can score near the top over five years and mid-pack over twenty. A series pinned at 100 has nowhere left to go, so the level matters too.
US Treasury · NBER · daily TIPS par yield curve · rank computed here
2 Oct 2026 · real par yields, Treasury, around 3:30pm ET
| Tenor | Real yield | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y | 2.69% | +4 | +5 | +50 | +137 | 99 |
| 7Y | 2.80% | +4 | +7 | +49 | +125 | 99 |
| 10Y | 2.92% | +4 | +9 | +47 | +112 | 99 |
| 20Y | 3.19% | +3 | +11 | +41 | +94 | 100 |
| 30Y | 3.34% | +3 | +12 | +36 | +85 | 100 |
tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar
| Pair | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s | +23bp | 0 | +4 | −3 | 52 |
| 5s30s | +65bp | −1 | +7 | −14 | 54 |
| 10s30s | +42bp | −1 | +3 | −11 | 58 |
long − short, in basis points
| Fly | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s30s | −19bp | +1 | +1 | +8 | 41 |
2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral
| Fly | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s30s | −4bp | +1 | 0 | +10 | 30 |
the fly with 5s30s regressed out over five years
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Inverted | 0 of 7 | pairs 2× apart in maturity |
| Deepest | — | nothing counted is inverted |
| Uncounted | — | no inversion between neighbours |
| 5s30s | not inverted | |
| Month | Bear Flattener | Δ level +44bp · Δ slope −15bp over a month |
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Last episode | 42 sessions | 11 Aug 2023 → 11 Oct 2023 |
| Deepest (25 Aug 2023) | −20bp | |
| Area | 433 | basis points × sessions below zero |
| Un-inverted (12 Oct 2023) | 1086 days ago | calendar days, not sessions |
5s30s episodes of 20 sessions or more, since 22 Feb 2010
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 10Y vol | 83bp | annualised, 21 sessions |
| Rank · 5y | 56th | |
| Shape share | 0.70 | 5s30s vol ÷ 10Y vol |
realised standard deviation of daily changes, annualised
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 1y | −8.0% | |
| 5y | −25.8% | not annualised |
| Worst fall (3 Aug 2021) | −29.7% | peak to trough, bottoming 25 Oct 2023 |
| Since then | −28.2% |
a rolling 10Y par bond, coupon and price. Not a fund
| Anchor | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| NBER (dated to 1 Sep 2026) | not in a dated recession | NBER dates turning points about a year late |
Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the published real yield curve. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.