TIPS Real Yields · Phase · 10Y 2.92% — Steepener

The read

Real (TIPS) · Phase · 2 Oct 2026

10Y 2.92%

5s30s: +65bp
month: Bear Flattener
rank · 5y: 99th

A phase plane puts level along one axis and slope along the other, so a single dot carries both.

Real (TIPS) at 2.92% on the 10Y against a +65bp 5s30s, drawn over every day since 18 Oct 2021. That corner held 10 of them, and the path walks monthly from 18 Oct 2021.

TIPS real yields: the return Treasury bonds pay above inflation once their inflation-linked principal is stripped out.

Angles

Change · +47bp on the month, most at the 5Y (+50bp) · on the month, in basis points; amber rose, blue fell
Curve · 2.69% at the 5Y rising to a high of 3.34% at the 30Y · level bars, shaded by five-year rank; the headline maturity is outlined
History · 10Y at or above its five-year median of 1.83% for 144 sessions, 204 of the last 250 at or above · the last year of sessions split by today’s five-year median
Regime · bear flattener on the month, bear flattener on the year; 51% of the last year read as today · each period back is read on its own; the grid counts the last year of sessions

How to read this

What it is

A phase plane puts level along one axis and slope along the other, so a single dot carries both. The trail behind holds the order the days arrived in.

How to read the chart

The spread runs left to right and the real yield bottom to top, so a dot holds both; the faint dots are earlier days.

The dot’s position is the state; the path behind it says how that arrived. Left of the Flat rule is an inverted curve.

A dot at 4.20% and −40bp sits high and left, so elevated and inverted.

Method

Dots in the alarm colour fell inside a dated recession, and those dates are only fixed long after the fact. A loop does not make a cycle, and nothing here promises the curve comes round again.

Source

US Treasury · daily TIPS par yield curve · phase computed here

Real (TIPS) in detail

2 Oct 2026 · real par yields, Treasury, around 3:30pm ET

Curve

Tenor	Real yield	1D	1W	1M	1Y	%ile 5y
5Y	2.69%	+4	+5	+50	+137	99
7Y	2.80%	+4	+7	+49	+125	99
10Y	2.92%	+4	+9	+47	+112	99
20Y	3.19%	+3	+11	+41	+94	100
30Y	3.34%	+3	+12	+36	+85	100

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

Pair	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
5s10s	+23bp	0	+4	−3	52
5s30s	+65bp	−1	+7	−14	54
10s30s	+42bp	−1	+3	−11	58

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
5s10s30s	−19bp	+1	+1	+8	41

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
5s10s30s	−4bp	+1	0	+10	30

the fly with 5s30s regressed out over five years

State

Line	Value	Detail
Inverted	0 of 7	pairs 2× apart in maturity
Deepest	—	nothing counted is inverted
Uncounted	—	no inversion between neighbours
5s30s	not inverted
Month	Bear Flattener	Δ level +44bp · Δ slope −15bp over a month

This inversion

Line	Value	Detail
Last episode	42 sessions	11 Aug 2023 → 11 Oct 2023
Deepest (25 Aug 2023)	−20bp
Area	433	basis points × sessions below zero
Un-inverted (12 Oct 2023)	1086 days ago	calendar days, not sessions

5s30s episodes of 20 sessions or more, since 22 Feb 2010

Volatility

Line	Value	Detail
10Y vol	83bp	annualised, 21 sessions
Rank · 5y	56th
Shape share	0.70	5s30s vol ÷ 10Y vol

realised standard deviation of daily changes, annualised

Held, not watched

Line	Value	Detail
1y	−8.0%
5y	−25.8%	not annualised
Worst fall (3 Aug 2021)	−29.7%	peak to trough, bottoming 25 Oct 2023
Since then	−28.2%

a rolling 10Y par bond, coupon and price. Not a fund

Anchors

Anchor	Value	Detail
NBER (dated to 1 Sep 2026)	not in a dated recession	NBER dates turning points about a year late

Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the published real yield curve. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.