Nominal Yields · Spread · 2s10s +45bp — Steepener

The read

Nominal · Spread · 2 Oct 2026

2Y–10Y +45bp

rank · 5y

69th

10Y

5.28%

2s10s on the month

+5bp

A spread is one maturity’s yield minus a shorter one’s.

Nominal Yields 2s10s from 4 Oct 2021 to 2 Oct 2026: 2s10s currently +45bp, ranging between −108bp and +129bp.

The par yield curve across every Treasury maturity, from 1-month bills to 30-year bonds: what people mean by the Treasury yield curve.

Rank

2Y–10Y +45bp: 29th of 1y, 69th of 5y, 54th of 10y, 35th of since 1990. High is a steep curve, low is an inverted one.

Angles

• Change · +49bp on the month, most at the 5Y (+52bp) · on the month, in basis points; amber rose, blue fell
• Inversion · no benchmark pair inverted (20s30s excluded); 3M–5Y moved most on the month, +25bp · spread in basis points, month change under it; a blue cell is an inverted pair
• Curve · 4.04% at the 1M rising to a high of 5.67% at the 20Y · level bars, shaded by five-year rank; the headline maturity is outlined
• History · 10Y at or above its five-year median of 4.14% for 145 sessions, 194 of the last 250 at or above · the last year of sessions split by today’s five-year median

How to read this

What it is

A spread is one maturity’s yield minus a shorter one’s. Below zero the spread is inverted, and the shorter leg pays more.

How to read the chart

2s10s is the 10Y minus the 2Y, drawn through time in basis points. Below zero, the 2Y is the one paying more.

Below zero, the near leg is priced to come down. Depth varies by pair and era, so deep for one pair is ordinary for another.

A longer maturity 40bp below a shorter one prints −40bp: below zero, so inverted.

Method

It has gone negative before every US recession since 1976, usually more than a year ahead. It also inverted in 1998 with nothing after. Timing is the hard part.

Source

US Treasury · NBER · daily par yield curve · spread computed here

Nominal Yields in detail

2 Oct 2026 · par yields, Treasury, around 3:30pm ET

Curve

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

the fly with 2s10s regressed out over five years

Carry, in money

cushion × DV01, in points per 100 face. Not a recommendation

Priced ahead

forward par yields off a discount curve bootstrapped here to 30.0y; the bp is the distance from today's par at the same maturity; each cell carries its desk code

Priced for today

what that day’s closes priced for today, off its own bootstrap; the miss is today’s close less the price

Zero rates

zero-coupon rates off the same bootstrap, against the par yield at the same maturity

State

Near-term forward

the 3m rate priced six quarters out, minus 3m today

Against financing

the yield minus SOFR, SOFR restated on a 365-day basis

This inversion

2s10s episodes of 20 sessions or more, since 2 Jan 1990

Volatility

realised standard deviation of daily changes, annualised

Held, not watched

a rolling 10Y par bond, coupon and price. Not a fund

Anchors

Spreads, butterflies, zero rates and forwards are derived here from the published yield curve. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.

Nominal Yields, drawn other ways

• Nominal Yields · Curve
• Nominal Yields · History
• Nominal Yields · Compare
• Nominal Yields · Change
• Nominal Yields · Moves
• Nominal Yields · Percentiles
• Nominal Yields · Rank
• Nominal Yields · Volatility
• Nominal Yields · Total Return
• Nominal Yields · Butterfly
• Nominal Yields · Inversion
• Nominal Yields · Regime
• Nominal Yields · Phase
• Nominal Yields · Zero Curve
• Nominal Yields · Forwards
• Nominal Yields · Fitted Curve
• Nominal Yields · Policy Path
• Nominal Yields · SEP Dots
• Nominal Yields · Carry
• Nominal Yields · Forward History
• Nominal Yields · Attribution
• Nominal Yields · Recession Odds
• Nominal Yields · Level/Slope/Curvature
• Nominal Yields · Rich/Cheap
• Nominal Yields · Analogues

Rates

• Nominal Yields
• Real (TIPS)
• Breakeven Inflation
• Term Premium
• Expected Rate Path
• Treasury Bills

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• US Treasury yield curve
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