Nominal Yields · Inversion · 2s10s +45bp — Steepener

The read

Nominal · Inversion · 2 Oct 2026

inverted 0 of 81

2s10s

+45bp

un-inverted

766 days ago

episode deepest

−108bp

Inversion means a distant maturity yielding beneath a nearer one.

Nominal Yields pairwise spreads on 2 Oct 2026: 0 of 81 pairs at least twice as long as their short leg are inverted. 1 more sit between adjacent maturities, led by 20Y/30Y at −4bp.

The par yield curve across every Treasury maturity, from 1-month bills to 30-year bonds: what people mean by the Treasury yield curve.

Rank

2Y–10Y +45bp: 29th of 1y, 69th of 5y, 54th of 10y, 35th of since 1990. High is a steep curve, low is an inverted one.

Angles

• Spread · 2s10s at +45bp, 69th percentile of five years · box is the middle half, tick the median, dotted line is zero
• Curve · 4.04% at the 1M rising to a high of 5.67% at the 20Y · level bars, shaded by five-year rank; the headline maturity is outlined
• Change · +49bp on the month, most at the 5Y (+52bp) · on the month, in basis points; amber rose, blue fell
• History · 10Y at or above its five-year median of 4.14% for 145 sessions, 194 of the last 250 at or above · the last year of sessions split by today’s five-year median

How to read this

What it is

Inversion means a distant maturity yielding beneath a nearer one. The grid counts each pair separately, because a curve turns over in parts and not all at once.

How to read the chart

Each cell holds the spread between its row and its column, in basis points. Hatched cells are the inverted ones.

Only pairs twice apart in maturity enter the count, so quirks between neighbours stay out. Neighbours invert on supply alone.

A cell reading −40 has the longer leg paying 40bp less than the shorter, and it is hatched.

Method

Every pair that extends maturity is drawn, including the ones the count leaves out, so a hatched cell can sit beside a count of zero. Read the block, not the cell. A lone pair is usually issuance.

Source

US Treasury · daily par yield curve · inversion computed here

Nominal Yields in detail

2 Oct 2026 · par yields, Treasury, around 3:30pm ET

Curve

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

the fly with 2s10s regressed out over five years

Carry, in money

cushion × DV01, in points per 100 face. Not a recommendation

Priced ahead

forward par yields off a discount curve bootstrapped here to 30.0y; the bp is the distance from today's par at the same maturity; each cell carries its desk code

Priced for today

what that day’s closes priced for today, off its own bootstrap; the miss is today’s close less the price

Zero rates

zero-coupon rates off the same bootstrap, against the par yield at the same maturity

State

Near-term forward

the 3m rate priced six quarters out, minus 3m today

Against financing

the yield minus SOFR, SOFR restated on a 365-day basis

This inversion

2s10s episodes of 20 sessions or more, since 2 Jan 1990

Volatility

realised standard deviation of daily changes, annualised

Held, not watched

a rolling 10Y par bond, coupon and price. Not a fund

Anchors

Spreads, butterflies, zero rates and forwards are derived here from the published yield curve. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.

Nominal Yields, drawn other ways

• Nominal Yields · Curve
• Nominal Yields · History
• Nominal Yields · Compare
• Nominal Yields · Change
• Nominal Yields · Moves
• Nominal Yields · Percentiles
• Nominal Yields · Rank
• Nominal Yields · Volatility
• Nominal Yields · Total Return
• Nominal Yields · Spread
• Nominal Yields · Butterfly
• Nominal Yields · Regime
• Nominal Yields · Phase
• Nominal Yields · Zero Curve
• Nominal Yields · Forwards
• Nominal Yields · Fitted Curve
• Nominal Yields · Policy Path
• Nominal Yields · SEP Dots
• Nominal Yields · Carry
• Nominal Yields · Forward History
• Nominal Yields · Attribution
• Nominal Yields · Recession Odds
• Nominal Yields · Level/Slope/Curvature
• Nominal Yields · Rich/Cheap
• Nominal Yields · Analogues

Rates

• Nominal Yields
• Real (TIPS)
• Breakeven Inflation
• Term Premium
• Expected Rate Path
• Treasury Bills

Pages

• US Treasury yield curve
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