Nominal Yields · Fitted Curve · 10Y 5.17% — Steepener

The read

Nominal · Fitted Curve · 25 Sep 2026

10Y 5.17%

2s10s

+36bp

2s5s10s slope-neutral

+10bp

2s5s10s

−2bp

A fitted curve puts each maturity where a model says it belongs.

The Board's fitted zero curve on 25 Sep 2026, from six Svensson parameters: 5y5y at 5.45% and 10y10y at 6.13%.

The par yield curve across every Treasury maturity, from 1-month bills to 30-year bonds: what people mean by the Treasury yield curve.

Angles

• Curve · 4.04% at the 1M rising to a high of 5.54% at the 20Y · level bars, shaded by five-year rank; the headline maturity is outlined
• Zero Curve · Zero over par by +1bp at the 2Y, +4bp at the 10Y, +5bp at the 30Y · the rate for one payment on one date against the par yield that blends them; the gap is what a term premium reconciles to
• Change · +51bp on the month, most at the 3Y (+65bp) · on the month, in basis points; amber rose, blue fell
• Percentiles · Against five years the 20Y is highest at 100 and the 3M lowest at 44 · amber above the median of the window, blue below; a dashed cell has less record than its window

How to read this

What it is

A fitted curve puts each maturity where a model says it belongs. What decides that is what every seasoned bond on the market costs, and the distance to a published yield runs either way.

How to read the chart

Read a point as the yield the fit says that maturity should pay; what matters is the distance to Treasury’s published dot.

It shadows Treasury’s almost everywhere. Where the two part company, at ten and thirty years, sits the benchmark premium.

A fitted 10Y of 4.34% against a published 4.30% leaves the benchmark 4bp rich.

Method

Svensson’s six parameters, fitted by Gürkaynak, Sack and Wright on seasoned bonds only. It is staff research, revised without notice, and lags a week or two, so what it draws is never today.

Source

US Treasury · FRB staff research · daily par yield curve · fitted curve computed here

Nominal Yields in detail

25 Sep 2026 · par yields, Treasury, around 3:30pm ET

Curve

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

the fly with 2s10s regressed out over five years

Carry, in money

cushion × DV01, in points per 100 face. Not a recommendation

Priced ahead

forward par yields off a discount curve bootstrapped here to 30.0y; the bp is the distance from today's par at the same maturity; each cell carries its desk code

Priced for today

what that day’s closes priced for today, off its own bootstrap; the miss is today’s close less the price

Zero rates

zero-coupon rates off the same bootstrap, against the par yield at the same maturity

State

Near-term forward

the 3m rate priced six quarters out, minus 3m today

Against financing

the yield minus SOFR, SOFR restated on a 365-day basis

This inversion

2s10s episodes of 20 sessions or more, since 2 Jan 1990

Volatility

realised standard deviation of daily changes, annualised

Held, not watched

a rolling 10Y par bond, coupon and price. Not a fund

Anchors

Spreads, butterflies, zero rates and forwards are derived here from the published yield curve. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.

Nominal Yields, drawn other ways

• Nominal Yields · Curve
• Nominal Yields · History
• Nominal Yields · Compare
• Nominal Yields · Change
• Nominal Yields · Moves
• Nominal Yields · Percentiles
• Nominal Yields · Rank
• Nominal Yields · Volatility
• Nominal Yields · Total Return
• Nominal Yields · Spread
• Nominal Yields · Butterfly
• Nominal Yields · Inversion
• Nominal Yields · Regime
• Nominal Yields · Phase
• Nominal Yields · Zero Curve
• Nominal Yields · Forwards
• Nominal Yields · Policy Path
• Nominal Yields · SEP Dots
• Nominal Yields · Carry
• Nominal Yields · Forward History
• Nominal Yields · Attribution
• Nominal Yields · Recession Odds
• Nominal Yields · Level/Slope/Curvature
• Nominal Yields · Rich/Cheap
• Nominal Yields · Analogues

Rates

• Nominal Yields
• Real (TIPS)
• Breakeven Inflation
• Term Premium
• Expected Rate Path
• Treasury Bills

Pages

• US Treasury yield curve
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