Nominal Yields · Policy Path · priced six quarters out +90bp — Steepener

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Nominal · Policy Path · 2 Oct 2026

priced six quarters out +90bp

EFFR

3.88%

1y1y

5.22%

rank · 5y

86th

A policy path reads the overnight rate out of current prices, date by date.

The six-month rate the curve prices at each horizon on 2 Oct 2026: 5.26% two years out against a 3.88% target midpoint today, which is about 6 hikes, or about 2 hikes once the term premium is stripped out. Not a probability, and not OIS. The committee's own median for end-2026 is 4.10%, unchanged since 16 Sep 2026.

The par yield curve across every Treasury maturity, from 1-month bills to 30-year bonds: what people mean by the Treasury yield curve.

Angles

• Forward History · 5y5y at 5.57%, 100th percentile of five years · the five-year rate five years out on its own record; box is the middle half, tick the median
• Forwards · 5y5y forward at 5.57%, +29bp above the 10Y spot · each forward as a bar from the 1Y spot; the far rung against the 10Y is the reading
• SEP Dots · End-2027 median 4.1% since 16 Sep 2026, +120bp from its first projection, 5 revisions · the median projection for the year-end, when it was set, and how far it has come since its first print
• History · 10Y at or above its five-year median of 4.14% for 145 sessions, 194 of the last 250 at or above · the last year of sessions split by today’s five-year median

How to read this

What it is

A policy path reads the overnight rate out of current prices, date by date. Every point on it is implied by what the curve costs now.

How to read the chart

Measure downward from the flat target mark. Sitting 50bp beneath it two years out amounts to roughly two quarter-point cuts.

Fifty basis points over two years describes most cycles. Pricing at the turn of 2024 ran past six cuts, and three landed.

A path from 4.30% today to 3.55% in a year has three quarter-point cuts in it.

Method

Fed funds futures cost money, so a Treasury forward stands in; it carries term premium and reads high far out, which Kim-Wright takes off. The SEP band comes from policymakers, not from the market.

Source

US Treasury · Federal Reserve Board · St. Louis Fed · BEA · BLS · CBO · daily par yield curve · policy path computed here

Nominal Yields in detail

2 Oct 2026 · par yields, Treasury, around 3:30pm ET

Curve

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

the fly with 2s10s regressed out over five years

Carry, in money

cushion × DV01, in points per 100 face. Not a recommendation

Priced ahead

forward par yields off a discount curve bootstrapped here to 30.0y; the bp is the distance from today's par at the same maturity; each cell carries its desk code

Priced for today

what that day’s closes priced for today, off its own bootstrap; the miss is today’s close less the price

Zero rates

zero-coupon rates off the same bootstrap, against the par yield at the same maturity

State

Near-term forward

the 3m rate priced six quarters out, minus 3m today

Against financing

the yield minus SOFR, SOFR restated on a 365-day basis

This inversion

2s10s episodes of 20 sessions or more, since 2 Jan 1990

Volatility

realised standard deviation of daily changes, annualised

Held, not watched

a rolling 10Y par bond, coupon and price. Not a fund

Anchors

Spreads, butterflies, zero rates and forwards are derived here from the published yield curve. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.

Nominal Yields, drawn other ways

• Nominal Yields · Curve
• Nominal Yields · History
• Nominal Yields · Compare
• Nominal Yields · Change
• Nominal Yields · Moves
• Nominal Yields · Percentiles
• Nominal Yields · Rank
• Nominal Yields · Volatility
• Nominal Yields · Total Return
• Nominal Yields · Spread
• Nominal Yields · Butterfly
• Nominal Yields · Inversion
• Nominal Yields · Regime
• Nominal Yields · Phase
• Nominal Yields · Zero Curve
• Nominal Yields · Forwards
• Nominal Yields · Fitted Curve
• Nominal Yields · SEP Dots
• Nominal Yields · Carry
• Nominal Yields · Forward History
• Nominal Yields · Attribution
• Nominal Yields · Recession Odds
• Nominal Yields · Level/Slope/Curvature
• Nominal Yields · Rich/Cheap
• Nominal Yields · Analogues

Rates

• Nominal Yields
• Real (TIPS)
• Breakeven Inflation
• Term Premium
• Expected Rate Path
• Treasury Bills

Pages

• US Treasury yield curve
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