Nominal Yields · Percentiles · 10Y 5.28% — Steepener

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Nominal · Percentiles · 2 Oct 2026

rank · 5y 99th

10Y

5.28%

2s10s rank · 5y

69th

vol rank · 5y

41st

A percentile is today’s place inside its own record.

Nominal Yields on 2 Oct 2026 against its five years range: 5Y sits highest at the 99th percentile, 2M lowest at the 43rd. Not drawn: 1.5M, 4M, too little record to rank against this window.

The par yield curve across every Treasury maturity, from 1-month bills to 30-year bonds: what people mean by the Treasury yield curve.

Rank

10Y 5.28%: 99th of 1y, 99th of 5y, 99th of 10y, 71st of since 1990. High is the government paying more to borrow for ten years.

Angles

• Curve · 4.04% at the 1M rising to a high of 5.67% at the 20Y · level bars, shaded by five-year rank; the headline maturity is outlined
• History · 10Y at or above its five-year median of 4.14% for 145 sessions, 194 of the last 250 at or above · the last year of sessions split by today’s five-year median
• Change · +49bp on the month, most at the 5Y (+52bp) · on the month, in basis points; amber rose, blue fell
• Spread · 2s10s at +45bp, 69th percentile of five years · box is the middle half, tick the median, dotted line is zero

How to read this

What it is

A percentile is today’s place inside its own record. At the 90th, only one day in ten came in higher. Each series is scored on its history and on nothing else.

How to read the chart

Solid is today, dashed the median across that window. The pale band is the full range and the darker one the middle half.

A high rank puts today among the highest readings in its window, not high outright. The window decides whose history that is.

At the 80th percentile, the yield sat below today on four days in five across the window.

Method

Four percent means nothing on its own. It was low in 1995 and high in 2015, and only a range says which of those today resembles.

Source

US Treasury · daily par yield curve · percentiles computed here

Nominal Yields in detail

2 Oct 2026 · par yields, Treasury, around 3:30pm ET

Curve

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

the fly with 2s10s regressed out over five years

Carry, in money

cushion × DV01, in points per 100 face. Not a recommendation

Priced ahead

forward par yields off a discount curve bootstrapped here to 30.0y; the bp is the distance from today's par at the same maturity; each cell carries its desk code

Priced for today

what that day’s closes priced for today, off its own bootstrap; the miss is today’s close less the price

Zero rates

zero-coupon rates off the same bootstrap, against the par yield at the same maturity

State

Near-term forward

the 3m rate priced six quarters out, minus 3m today

Against financing

the yield minus SOFR, SOFR restated on a 365-day basis

This inversion

2s10s episodes of 20 sessions or more, since 2 Jan 1990

Volatility

realised standard deviation of daily changes, annualised

Held, not watched

a rolling 10Y par bond, coupon and price. Not a fund

Anchors

Spreads, butterflies, zero rates and forwards are derived here from the published yield curve. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.

Nominal Yields, drawn other ways

• Nominal Yields · Curve
• Nominal Yields · History
• Nominal Yields · Compare
• Nominal Yields · Change
• Nominal Yields · Moves
• Nominal Yields · Rank
• Nominal Yields · Volatility
• Nominal Yields · Total Return
• Nominal Yields · Spread
• Nominal Yields · Butterfly
• Nominal Yields · Inversion
• Nominal Yields · Regime
• Nominal Yields · Phase
• Nominal Yields · Zero Curve
• Nominal Yields · Forwards
• Nominal Yields · Fitted Curve
• Nominal Yields · Policy Path
• Nominal Yields · SEP Dots
• Nominal Yields · Carry
• Nominal Yields · Forward History
• Nominal Yields · Attribution
• Nominal Yields · Recession Odds
• Nominal Yields · Level/Slope/Curvature
• Nominal Yields · Rich/Cheap
• Nominal Yields · Analogues

Rates

• Nominal Yields
• Real (TIPS)
• Breakeven Inflation
• Term Premium
• Expected Rate Path
• Treasury Bills

Pages

• US Treasury yield curve
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