Nominal Yields · Rich/Cheap · 2s5s10s slope-neutral +11bp — Steepener

The read

Nominal · Rich/Cheap · 2 Oct 2026

2s5s10s slope-neutral +11bp

2s5s10s

+1bp

10Y

5.28%

2s10s

+45bp

Cheap is a maturity yielding more than the shape around it implies, and rich is one yielding less.

Nominal Yields on 2 Oct 2026 against a 3-component fit of 12 maturities (1M, 2M, 3M, 6M, 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 20Y, 30Y): furthest above fit 5Y at +7bp, furthest below 6M at −8bp.

The par yield curve across every Treasury maturity, from 1-month bills to 30-year bonds: what people mean by the Treasury yield curve.

Angles

• Fitted Curve · 10y10y at 6.13% against a fitted 10Y par of 5.19%; the fit is dated 25 Sep 2026 · hollow marks are the fit’s own par yields, solid the forwards it implies; every mark off one fit
• Curve · 4.04% at the 1M rising to a high of 5.67% at the 20Y · level bars, shaded by five-year rank; the headline maturity is outlined
• Zero Curve · Zero over par by +1bp at the 2Y, +5bp at the 10Y, +7bp at the 30Y · the rate for one payment on one date against the par yield that blends them; the gap is what a term premium reconciles to
• Volatility · 10Y moved +4bp today against a typical day of 5.3bp · the last 21 sessions placed by size, never by date; the band is one typical day

How to read this

What it is

Cheap is a maturity yielding more than the shape around it implies, and rich is one yielding less. That distance shows in basis points, taken one maturity at a time.

How to read the chart

A maturity above the rule yields more than the fitted curve implies, in bp, and yielding more is cheap.

Single digits are ordinary; the source prints whole basis points. Double figures usually have a reason, like a big auction.

A 7Y at 4.18% against a 4.15% fit is 3bp cheap, since it yields more than the shape implies.

Method

Fitted on the last five years, so it tracks how this curve has lately behaved. It ranks the gaps. It does not say they will close.

Source

US Treasury · daily par yield curve · rich/cheap computed here

Nominal Yields in detail

2 Oct 2026 · par yields, Treasury, around 3:30pm ET

Curve

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

the fly with 2s10s regressed out over five years

Carry, in money

cushion × DV01, in points per 100 face. Not a recommendation

Priced ahead

forward par yields off a discount curve bootstrapped here to 30.0y; the bp is the distance from today's par at the same maturity; each cell carries its desk code

Priced for today

what that day’s closes priced for today, off its own bootstrap; the miss is today’s close less the price

Zero rates

zero-coupon rates off the same bootstrap, against the par yield at the same maturity

State

Near-term forward

the 3m rate priced six quarters out, minus 3m today

Against financing

the yield minus SOFR, SOFR restated on a 365-day basis

This inversion

2s10s episodes of 20 sessions or more, since 2 Jan 1990

Volatility

realised standard deviation of daily changes, annualised

Held, not watched

a rolling 10Y par bond, coupon and price. Not a fund

Anchors

Spreads, butterflies, zero rates and forwards are derived here from the published yield curve. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.

Nominal Yields, drawn other ways

• Nominal Yields · Curve
• Nominal Yields · History
• Nominal Yields · Compare
• Nominal Yields · Change
• Nominal Yields · Moves
• Nominal Yields · Percentiles
• Nominal Yields · Rank
• Nominal Yields · Volatility
• Nominal Yields · Total Return
• Nominal Yields · Spread
• Nominal Yields · Butterfly
• Nominal Yields · Inversion
• Nominal Yields · Regime
• Nominal Yields · Phase
• Nominal Yields · Zero Curve
• Nominal Yields · Forwards
• Nominal Yields · Fitted Curve
• Nominal Yields · Policy Path
• Nominal Yields · SEP Dots
• Nominal Yields · Carry
• Nominal Yields · Forward History
• Nominal Yields · Attribution
• Nominal Yields · Recession Odds
• Nominal Yields · Level/Slope/Curvature
• Nominal Yields · Analogues

Rates

• Nominal Yields
• Real (TIPS)
• Breakeven Inflation
• Term Premium
• Expected Rate Path
• Treasury Bills

Pages

• US Treasury yield curve
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