Nominal Yields · Analogues · 2s10s +45bp — Steepener

The read

Nominal · Analogues · 2 Oct 2026

2s10s +45bp

10Y

5.28%

month

Bear Steepener

rank · 5y

99th

An analogue is the closest match the record holds for today’s shape.

Nominal Yields on 2 Oct 2026 compared with its closest historical shapes: 13 Aug 1997, 14 Feb 1997, 1 May 1995. Curves are shown as deviation from each day's own mean, before each maturity is scaled to its own history.

The par yield curve across every Treasury maturity, from 1-month bills to 30-year bonds: what people mean by the Treasury yield curve.

Angles

• History · 10Y at or above its five-year median of 4.14% for 145 sessions, 194 of the last 250 at or above · the last year of sessions split by today’s five-year median
• Curve · 4.04% at the 1M rising to a high of 5.67% at the 20Y · level bars, shaded by five-year rank; the headline maturity is outlined
• Percentiles · Against five years the 5Y is highest at 99 and the 3M lowest at 43 · amber above the median of the window, blue below; a dashed cell has less record than its window
• Change · +49bp on the month, most at the 5Y (+52bp) · on the month, in basis points; amber rose, blue fell

How to read this

What it is

An analogue is the closest match the record holds for today’s shape. Levels are scaled away before anything is compared, so a match is about form and never height.

How to read the chart

Each curve is plotted as distance to that day’s average, so the axis carries shape, not level.

A close match says the curve has held this shape before, never that it repeats. What happened next sits on each row.

Method

Matches are ranked by straight-line distance after scaling each maturity to its own history. It is a rank, not a score, so no percentage prints. Two curves can share a shape and nothing else.

Source

US Treasury · daily par yield curve · analogues computed here

Nominal Yields in detail

2 Oct 2026 · par yields, Treasury, around 3:30pm ET

Curve

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

the fly with 2s10s regressed out over five years

Carry, in money

cushion × DV01, in points per 100 face. Not a recommendation

Priced ahead

forward par yields off a discount curve bootstrapped here to 30.0y; the bp is the distance from today's par at the same maturity; each cell carries its desk code

Priced for today

what that day’s closes priced for today, off its own bootstrap; the miss is today’s close less the price

Zero rates

zero-coupon rates off the same bootstrap, against the par yield at the same maturity

State

Near-term forward

the 3m rate priced six quarters out, minus 3m today

Against financing

the yield minus SOFR, SOFR restated on a 365-day basis

This inversion

2s10s episodes of 20 sessions or more, since 2 Jan 1990

Volatility

realised standard deviation of daily changes, annualised

Held, not watched

a rolling 10Y par bond, coupon and price. Not a fund

Anchors

Spreads, butterflies, zero rates and forwards are derived here from the published yield curve. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.

Nominal Yields, drawn other ways

• Nominal Yields · Curve
• Nominal Yields · History
• Nominal Yields · Compare
• Nominal Yields · Change
• Nominal Yields · Moves
• Nominal Yields · Percentiles
• Nominal Yields · Rank
• Nominal Yields · Volatility
• Nominal Yields · Total Return
• Nominal Yields · Spread
• Nominal Yields · Butterfly
• Nominal Yields · Inversion
• Nominal Yields · Regime
• Nominal Yields · Phase
• Nominal Yields · Zero Curve
• Nominal Yields · Forwards
• Nominal Yields · Fitted Curve
• Nominal Yields · Policy Path
• Nominal Yields · SEP Dots
• Nominal Yields · Carry
• Nominal Yields · Forward History
• Nominal Yields · Attribution
• Nominal Yields · Recession Odds
• Nominal Yields · Level/Slope/Curvature
• Nominal Yields · Rich/Cheap

Rates

• Nominal Yields
• Real (TIPS)
• Breakeven Inflation
• Term Premium
• Expected Rate Path
• Treasury Bills

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• US Treasury yield curve
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