Breakeven Inflation · Spread · 5s30s −8bp — Steepener

The read

Breakevens · Spread · 2 Oct 2026

5Y–30Y −8bp

rank · 5y: 59th
10Y: 2.36%
5s30s on the month: −2bp

A spread is one maturity’s breakeven inflation rate minus a shorter one’s.

Breakeven Inflation 5s30s from 4 Oct 2021 to 2 Oct 2026: 5s30s currently −8bp, ranging between −105bp and +26bp.

The market’s priced inflation rate, nominal Treasury yields minus their TIPS equivalent.

Rank

5Y–30Y −8bp: 72nd of 1y, 59th of 5y, 37th of 10y, 22nd of since 2010. High is more inflation priced far out than near, low is the reverse.

Angles

Change · +2bp on the month, most at the 5Y (+2bp) · on the month, in basis points; amber rose, blue fell
Curve · 2.48% at the 20Y falling to a low of 2.29% at the 30Y · level bars, shaded by five-year rank; the headline maturity is outlined
History · 10Y at or above its five-year median of 2.33% for 23 sessions, 106 of the last 250 at or above · the last year of sessions split by today’s five-year median
Percentiles · Against five years the 10Y is highest at 64 and the 5Y lowest at 49 · amber above the median of the window, blue below; a dashed cell has less record than its window

How to read this

What it is

A spread is one maturity’s breakeven inflation rate minus a shorter one’s. Below zero the nearer years carry the higher priced inflation.

How to read the chart

Drawn through time in basis points, longer leg minus shorter. Below zero, the shorter leg is on the higher rate.

Widening puts more inflation in the far years than the near ones. Single basis points are ordinary; ten in a session is rare.

Forty basis points below a shorter maturity prints −40bp, near-term inflation priced above longer-term.

Method

Both legs come off the same close, so the gap carries no lag of its own. A pair can also move because one leg is scarce, a bond story and not a view on rates.

Source

US Treasury · Dallas Fed · Atlanta Fed · Cleveland Fed · NBER · daily par and TIPS curves · spread computed here

Breakeven Inflation in detail

2 Oct 2026 · par yields minus TIPS, both from Treasury, derived here

Curve

Tenor	Breakeven	1D	1W	1M	1Y	%ile 5y
5Y	2.37%	+1	+3	+2	−5	49
7Y	2.37%	+1	+4	+2	−1	56
10Y	2.36%	0	+2	+2	0	64
20Y	2.48%	0	+2	−1	+2	53
30Y	2.29%	−1	+2	0	+5	63

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

Pair	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
5s10s	−1bp	−1	−1	0	70
5s30s	−8bp	−2	−1	−2	59
10s30s	−7bp	−1	0	−2	40

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
5s10s30s	+6bp	0	−1	+2	83

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
5s10s30s	+6bp	0	−1	+2	77

the fly with 5s30s regressed out over five years

State

Line	Value	Detail
5s30s	−8bp	30Y below 5Y
Month level	0bp	mean of 5Y and 30Y, over 31 calendar days
Month slope	0bp	change in 5s30s, over 31 calendar days

Priced ahead

Line	Value	Detail
5y5y	2.35%	five years of inflation, priced to start in five years
5Y→10Y	−1bp	nearer-term inflation priced above longer-term
5Y→30Y	−8bp	nearer-term inflation priced above longer-term

compounded from the 5Y and 10Y breakevens, as FRED builds T5YIFR

Against realised

Line	Value	Detail
Trimmed mean PCE (Aug)	2.19%	year over year, tail movers dropped, and the 10Y breakeven prices 17bp above it
Sticky-price core (Aug)	2.70%	year over year, only the slow-repricing half, and the 10Y breakeven prices 34bp below it
Median CPI (Aug)	2.58%	year over year, built from each month’s middle of the basket, and the 10Y breakeven prices 22bp below it
16% trimmed CPI (Aug)	2.57%	year over year, each month with both tails dropped by weight, and the 10Y breakeven prices 21bp below it

all four are underlying cuts, year over year, so each trails the curve

Anchors

Anchor	Value	Detail
NBER (dated to 1 Sep 2026)	not in a dated recession	NBER dates turning points about a year late

Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the breakeven curve, which is itself derived here from Treasury par yields and TIPS. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.