Breakevens · Curve · 2 Oct 2026
10Y 2.36%
This curve holds the inflation compensation built into Treasury debt, from five years out to thirty.
Breakeven Inflation on 2 Oct 2026: 5 maturities published, 2.37% at the short end falling to 2.29% at the long end, with a high of 2.48% at the 20Y.
The market’s priced inflation rate, nominal Treasury yields minus their TIPS equivalent.
Level and slope: 10Y 81st of the year; 5s30s 72nd of the year. Level: high is more inflation priced; slope: high is more inflation priced far out than near, low is the reverse.
This curve holds the inflation compensation built into Treasury debt, from five years out to thirty. A point measures an ordinary bond against a protected one, and nobody was surveyed for it.
Each dot marks a maturity, its height the rate in percent. The axis is spaced by root years, so the short end stays readable.
Rising to the right prices more inflation the further out you go. Flat says the near and far years are priced alike.
The 10Y sitting 10bp above the 5Y prices a little more inflation into the later years than the nearer ones.
The 20Y often sits off the line because the nominal 20Y trades cheap on supply, a bond artifact and never an inflation view. Nobody surveyed anyone for these numbers.
US Treasury · Dallas Fed · Atlanta Fed · Cleveland Fed · daily par and TIPS curves
2 Oct 2026 · par yields minus TIPS, both from Treasury, derived here
| Tenor | Breakeven | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y | 2.37% | +1 | +3 | +2 | −5 | 49 |
| 7Y | 2.37% | +1 | +4 | +2 | −1 | 56 |
| 10Y | 2.36% | 0 | +2 | +2 | 0 | 64 |
| 20Y | 2.48% | 0 | +2 | −1 | +2 | 53 |
| 30Y | 2.29% | −1 | +2 | 0 | +5 | 63 |
tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar
| Pair | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s | −1bp | −1 | −1 | 0 | 70 |
| 5s30s | −8bp | −2 | −1 | −2 | 59 |
| 10s30s | −7bp | −1 | 0 | −2 | 40 |
long − short, in basis points
| Fly | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s30s | +6bp | 0 | −1 | +2 | 83 |
2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral
| Fly | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s30s | +6bp | 0 | −1 | +2 | 77 |
the fly with 5s30s regressed out over five years
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 5s30s | −8bp | 30Y below 5Y |
| Month level | 0bp | mean of 5Y and 30Y, over 31 calendar days |
| Month slope | 0bp | change in 5s30s, over 31 calendar days |
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 5y5y | 2.35% | five years of inflation, priced to start in five years |
| 5Y→10Y | −1bp | nearer-term inflation priced above longer-term |
| 5Y→30Y | −8bp | nearer-term inflation priced above longer-term |
compounded from the 5Y and 10Y breakevens, as FRED builds T5YIFR
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Trimmed mean PCE (Aug) | 2.19% | year over year, tail movers dropped, and the 10Y breakeven prices 17bp above it |
| Sticky-price core (Aug) | 2.70% | year over year, only the slow-repricing half, and the 10Y breakeven prices 34bp below it |
| Median CPI (Aug) | 2.58% | year over year, built from each month’s middle of the basket, and the 10Y breakeven prices 22bp below it |
| 16% trimmed CPI (Aug) | 2.57% | year over year, each month with both tails dropped by weight, and the 10Y breakeven prices 21bp below it |
all four are underlying cuts, year over year, so each trails the curve
| Anchor | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| NBER (dated to 1 Sep 2026) | not in a dated recession | NBER dates turning points about a year late |
Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the breakeven curve, which is itself derived here from Treasury par yields and TIPS. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.