Breakeven Inflation · Moves · 10Y 2.36% — Steepener

The read

Breakevens · Moves · 2 Oct 2026

on the month +2bp

5s30s on the month: −2bp
month: 0bp
10Y: 2.36%

Moves are how far each maturity travelled over a span, in basis points.

Change in Breakeven Inflation at 5 maturities over 7 spans to 2 Oct 2026, led by the 5Y at +2bp on the month.

The market’s priced inflation rate, nominal Treasury yields minus their TIPS equivalent.

Angles

Volatility · 10Y moved 0bp today against a typical day of 1.9bp · the last 21 sessions placed by size, never by date; the band is one typical day
Curve · 2.48% at the 20Y falling to a low of 2.29% at the 30Y · level bars, shaded by five-year rank; the headline maturity is outlined
History · 10Y at or above its five-year median of 2.33% for 23 sessions, 106 of the last 250 at or above · the last year of sessions split by today’s five-year median
Change · +2bp on the month, most at the 5Y (+2bp) · on the month, in basis points; amber rose, blue fell

How to read this

What it is

Moves are how far each maturity travelled over a span, in basis points. Spans stack together, from one session out to three years.

How to read the chart

Rows are maturities, columns are how far back; the spans nest. Each cell is a change over its span, in basis points.

Down a column gives the shape of one move. Along a row is whether that maturity kept going or gave it back.

A 10Y row reading +5 on the day and −24 on the month has given back part of a fall.

Method

Depth reads off breakevens’ own record, which moves less far. No bull or bear name appears, because a breakeven falling prices inflation lower and no bond rallied for it.

Source

US Treasury · Dallas Fed · Atlanta Fed · Cleveland Fed · daily par and TIPS curves · moves computed here

Breakeven Inflation in detail

2 Oct 2026 · par yields minus TIPS, both from Treasury, derived here

Curve

Tenor	Breakeven	1D	1W	1M	1Y	%ile 5y
5Y	2.37%	+1	+3	+2	−5	49
7Y	2.37%	+1	+4	+2	−1	56
10Y	2.36%	0	+2	+2	0	64
20Y	2.48%	0	+2	−1	+2	53
30Y	2.29%	−1	+2	0	+5	63

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

Pair	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
5s10s	−1bp	−1	−1	0	70
5s30s	−8bp	−2	−1	−2	59
10s30s	−7bp	−1	0	−2	40

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
5s10s30s	+6bp	0	−1	+2	83

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
5s10s30s	+6bp	0	−1	+2	77

the fly with 5s30s regressed out over five years

State

Line	Value	Detail
5s30s	−8bp	30Y below 5Y
Month level	0bp	mean of 5Y and 30Y, over 31 calendar days
Month slope	0bp	change in 5s30s, over 31 calendar days

Priced ahead

Line	Value	Detail
5y5y	2.35%	five years of inflation, priced to start in five years
5Y→10Y	−1bp	nearer-term inflation priced above longer-term
5Y→30Y	−8bp	nearer-term inflation priced above longer-term

compounded from the 5Y and 10Y breakevens, as FRED builds T5YIFR

Against realised

Line	Value	Detail
Trimmed mean PCE (Aug)	2.19%	year over year, tail movers dropped, and the 10Y breakeven prices 17bp above it
Sticky-price core (Aug)	2.70%	year over year, only the slow-repricing half, and the 10Y breakeven prices 34bp below it
Median CPI (Aug)	2.58%	year over year, built from each month’s middle of the basket, and the 10Y breakeven prices 22bp below it
16% trimmed CPI (Aug)	2.57%	year over year, each month with both tails dropped by weight, and the 10Y breakeven prices 21bp below it

all four are underlying cuts, year over year, so each trails the curve

Anchors

Anchor	Value	Detail
NBER (dated to 1 Sep 2026)	not in a dated recession	NBER dates turning points about a year late

Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the breakeven curve, which is itself derived here from Treasury par yields and TIPS. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.