Breakevens · Percentiles · 2 Oct 2026
rank · 5y 64th
A percentile is today’s place inside its own record.
Breakeven Inflation on 2 Oct 2026 against its five years range: 10Y sits highest at the 64th percentile, 5Y lowest at the 49th.
The market’s priced inflation rate, nominal Treasury yields minus their TIPS equivalent.
10Y 2.36%: 81st of 1y, 64th of 5y, 80th of 10y, 75th of since 2003. High is more inflation priced over ten years.
A percentile is today’s place inside its own record. At the 90th, only one day in ten came in higher. Each series is scored on its history and on nothing else.
Solid is today, dashed the median across that window. The pale band is the full range and the darker one the middle half.
A high rank puts today among the highest readings in its window, not high outright. The window decides whose history that is.
At the 80th percentile, the breakeven inflation rate sat below today on four days in five across the window.
A number means nothing on its own here; the window carries the claim. Widen Over and today slides from the edge of the range toward the middle, with the rate unchanged.
US Treasury · Dallas Fed · Atlanta Fed · Cleveland Fed · daily par and TIPS curves · percentiles computed here
2 Oct 2026 · par yields minus TIPS, both from Treasury, derived here
| Tenor | Breakeven | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y | 2.37% | +1 | +3 | +2 | −5 | 49 |
| 7Y | 2.37% | +1 | +4 | +2 | −1 | 56 |
| 10Y | 2.36% | 0 | +2 | +2 | 0 | 64 |
| 20Y | 2.48% | 0 | +2 | −1 | +2 | 53 |
| 30Y | 2.29% | −1 | +2 | 0 | +5 | 63 |
tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar
| Pair | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s | −1bp | −1 | −1 | 0 | 70 |
| 5s30s | −8bp | −2 | −1 | −2 | 59 |
| 10s30s | −7bp | −1 | 0 | −2 | 40 |
long − short, in basis points
| Fly | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s30s | +6bp | 0 | −1 | +2 | 83 |
2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral
| Fly | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s30s | +6bp | 0 | −1 | +2 | 77 |
the fly with 5s30s regressed out over five years
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 5s30s | −8bp | 30Y below 5Y |
| Month level | 0bp | mean of 5Y and 30Y, over 31 calendar days |
| Month slope | 0bp | change in 5s30s, over 31 calendar days |
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 5y5y | 2.35% | five years of inflation, priced to start in five years |
| 5Y→10Y | −1bp | nearer-term inflation priced above longer-term |
| 5Y→30Y | −8bp | nearer-term inflation priced above longer-term |
compounded from the 5Y and 10Y breakevens, as FRED builds T5YIFR
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Trimmed mean PCE (Aug) | 2.19% | year over year, tail movers dropped, and the 10Y breakeven prices 17bp above it |
| Sticky-price core (Aug) | 2.70% | year over year, only the slow-repricing half, and the 10Y breakeven prices 34bp below it |
| Median CPI (Aug) | 2.58% | year over year, built from each month’s middle of the basket, and the 10Y breakeven prices 22bp below it |
| 16% trimmed CPI (Aug) | 2.57% | year over year, each month with both tails dropped by weight, and the 10Y breakeven prices 21bp below it |
all four are underlying cuts, year over year, so each trails the curve
| Anchor | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| NBER (dated to 1 Sep 2026) | not in a dated recession | NBER dates turning points about a year late |
Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the breakeven curve, which is itself derived here from Treasury par yields and TIPS. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.