Breakeven Inflation · Compare · 10Y 2.23% — Steepener

The read

Breakevens · Compare · 6 Nov 2026

10Y 2.23%

on the month: −13bp
5s30s: −10bp
rank · 5y: 16th

Compare draws two curves at once, and the height between them at each maturity is a third rate.

Nominal Yields and Real (TIPS) on 6 Nov 2026, drawn on one axis. The vertical distance between them at each maturity is the breakeven inflation priced there. Each curve is drawn only where it publishes, so the shorter line ends where its own maturities do.

The market’s priced inflation rate, nominal Treasury yields minus their TIPS equivalent.

Angles

History · 10Y below its five-year median of 2.33% for 5 sessions, 118 of the last 250 at or above · the last year of sessions split by today’s five-year median
Change · −13bp on the month, most at the 10Y (−13bp) · on the month, in basis points; amber rose, blue fell
Rank · 10Y at 2.23%, 16th percentile of five years · box is the middle half, tick the median, the solid bar is today
Curve · 2.38% at the 20Y falling to a low of 2.19% at the 30Y · level bars, shaded by five-year rank; the headline maturity is outlined

How to read this

What it is

Compare draws two curves at once, and the height between them at each maturity is a third rate. Nominal less real gives what inflation costs at that maturity.

How to read the chart

Percent up the side, maturity across. The height separating one line from the other is the gap priced at that maturity.

A gap that holds while both lines move is the real yield doing it. A gap that opens is priced inflation instead.

A 10Y at 4.70% over a real 2.38% leaves 2.32%, the inflation priced between the two.

Method

TIPS run from 2003, and their 30Y only from 2010. Under five years just the nominal line exists. A missing separation there means one line has no data, never that nothing is priced.

Source

US Treasury · Dallas Fed · Atlanta Fed · Cleveland Fed · daily par and TIPS curves · compare computed here

Breakeven Inflation in detail

6 Nov 2026 · par yields minus TIPS, both from Treasury, derived here

Curve

Tenor	Breakeven	1D	1W	1M	1Y	%ile 5y
5Y	2.29%	+3	−17	−8	−9	32
7Y	2.26%	+2	−12	−11	−7	23
10Y	2.23%	−1	−11	−13	−6	16
20Y	2.38%	+1	−4	−13	−3	7
30Y	2.19%	−1	−4	−12	−3	12

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

Pair	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
5s10s	−6bp	−4	+6	−5	50
5s30s	−10bp	−4	+13	−4	53
10s30s	−4bp	0	+7	+1	58

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
5s10s30s	−2bp	−4	−1	−6	49

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
5s10s30s	−2bp	−3	−4	−5	31

the fly with 5s30s regressed out over five years

State

Line	Value	Detail
5s30s	−10bp	30Y below 5Y
Month level	−9bp	mean of 5Y and 30Y, over 31 calendar days
Month slope	−2bp	change in 5s30s, over 31 calendar days

Priced ahead

Line	Value	Detail
5y5y	2.17%	five years of inflation, priced to start in five years
5Y→10Y	−6bp	nearer-term inflation priced above longer-term
5Y→30Y	−10bp	nearer-term inflation priced above longer-term

compounded from the 5Y and 10Y breakevens, as FRED builds T5YIFR

Against realised

Line	Value	Detail
Trimmed mean PCE (Sep)	2.26%	year over year, tail movers dropped, and the 10Y breakeven prices 3bp below it
Sticky-price core (Sep)	2.78%	year over year, only the slow-repricing half, and the 10Y breakeven prices 55bp below it
Median CPI (Sep)	2.61%	year over year, built from each month’s middle of the basket, and the 10Y breakeven prices 38bp below it
16% trimmed CPI (Sep)	2.66%	year over year, each month with both tails dropped by weight, and the 10Y breakeven prices 43bp below it

all four are underlying cuts, year over year, so each trails the curve

Anchors

Anchor	Value	Detail
NBER (dated to 1 Oct 2026)	not in a dated recession	NBER dates turning points about a year late

Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the breakeven curve, which is itself derived here from Treasury par yields and TIPS. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.