Breakevens · 5y5y Forward · 7 Oct 2026
5y5y breakeven 2.35%
The 5y5y breakeven is the inflation priced into years five through ten, netted from the five-year and the ten-year.
Inflation priced into years five to ten, 7 Oct 2021 to 7 Oct 2026, computed from the five-year and ten-year breakevens drawn beneath it.
The market’s priced inflation rate, nominal Treasury yields minus their TIPS equivalent.
The 5y5y breakeven is the inflation priced into years five through ten, netted from the five-year and the ten-year. Nobody quotes it directly.
The forward itself is bold and solid, in percent. Its thinner legs are the ten-year and, dashed, the five-year it nets off.
Watch it part company with the five-year. That is somebody repricing the back half without repricing the front.
A ten-year 24bp above the five-year puts 5y5y another 24bp above the ten-year, since the far leg carries double weight.
A breakeven carries a liquidity discount and a risk premium as well as priced inflation, and that makes it the price of protection, not a prediction. FRED carries a close relative as T5YIFR.
US Treasury · Dallas Fed · Atlanta Fed · Cleveland Fed · NBER · daily par and TIPS curves · 5y5y forward computed here
7 Oct 2026 · par yields minus TIPS, both from Treasury, derived here
| Tenor | Breakeven | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y | 2.37% | 0 | +1 | −3 | −1 | 50 |
| 7Y | 2.37% | −1 | 0 | −2 | +3 | 56 |
| 10Y | 2.36% | 0 | 0 | −1 | +3 | 64 |
| 20Y | 2.51% | +2 | +1 | +2 | +6 | 67 |
| 30Y | 2.31% | +2 | 0 | +2 | +8 | 71 |
tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar
| Pair | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s | −1bp | 0 | −1 | +2 | 70 |
| 5s30s | −6bp | +2 | −1 | +5 | 63 |
| 10s30s | −5bp | +2 | 0 | +3 | 51 |
long − short, in basis points
| Fly | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s30s | +4bp | −2 | −1 | −1 | 75 |
2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral
| Fly | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s30s | +3bp | −2 | −1 | −2 | 68 |
the fly with 5s30s regressed out over five years
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 5s30s | −6bp | 30Y below 5Y |
| Month level | +2bp | mean of 5Y and 30Y, over 31 calendar days |
| Month slope | +3bp | change in 5s30s, over 31 calendar days |
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 5y5y | 2.35% | five years of inflation, priced to start in five years |
| 5Y→10Y | −1bp | nearer-term inflation priced above longer-term |
| 5Y→30Y | −6bp | nearer-term inflation priced above longer-term |
compounded from the 5Y and 10Y breakevens, as FRED builds T5YIFR
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Trimmed mean PCE (Aug) | 2.19% | year over year, tail movers dropped, and the 10Y breakeven prices 17bp above it |
| Sticky-price core (Aug) | 2.70% | year over year, only the slow-repricing half, and the 10Y breakeven prices 34bp below it |
| Median CPI (Aug) | 2.58% | year over year, built from each month’s middle of the basket, and the 10Y breakeven prices 22bp below it |
| 16% trimmed CPI (Aug) | 2.57% | year over year, each month with both tails dropped by weight, and the 10Y breakeven prices 21bp below it |
all four are underlying cuts, year over year, so each trails the curve
| Anchor | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| NBER (dated to 1 Sep 2026) | not in a dated recession | NBER dates turning points about a year late |
Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the breakeven curve, which is itself derived here from Treasury par yields and TIPS. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.