Breakevens · Change · 2 Oct 2026
on the month +2bp
Change subtracts an earlier breakeven inflation rate from a later one and prints the gap in basis points.
Breakeven Inflation change over one day to 2 Oct 2026: 5 maturities moved between −1bp and +1bp, with 5Y and 30Y averaging 0bp.
The market’s priced inflation rate, nominal Treasury yields minus their TIPS equivalent.
Change subtracts an earlier breakeven inflation rate from a later one and prints the gap in basis points. Whichever window you set, the arithmetic underneath is that one subtraction.
Above the zero rule the breakeven inflation rate rose over your chosen window, below it fell. The scale is basis points, not percent.
One maturity moving alone reprices that stretch by itself. Most days shift a handful of basis points; twenty is a lot.
Set Since to one day and a maturity closing 12bp higher prints +12; set it to a month and the same day can print −24.
Higher here is more inflation priced, whatever bond prices did. Short maturities swing with oil and headlines, while the long end moves much less and a move out there is the notable one.
US Treasury · Dallas Fed · Atlanta Fed · Cleveland Fed · daily par and TIPS curves · change computed here
2 Oct 2026 · par yields minus TIPS, both from Treasury, derived here
| Tenor | Breakeven | 1D | 1W | 1M | 1Y | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y | 2.37% | +1 | +3 | +2 | −5 | 49 |
| 7Y | 2.37% | +1 | +4 | +2 | −1 | 56 |
| 10Y | 2.36% | 0 | +2 | +2 | 0 | 64 |
| 20Y | 2.48% | 0 | +2 | −1 | +2 | 53 |
| 30Y | 2.29% | −1 | +2 | 0 | +5 | 63 |
tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar
| Pair | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s | −1bp | −1 | −1 | 0 | 70 |
| 5s30s | −8bp | −2 | −1 | −2 | 59 |
| 10s30s | −7bp | −1 | 0 | −2 | 40 |
long − short, in basis points
| Fly | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s30s | +6bp | 0 | −1 | +2 | 83 |
2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral
| Fly | BP | 1D | 1W | 1M | %ile 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5s10s30s | +6bp | 0 | −1 | +2 | 77 |
the fly with 5s30s regressed out over five years
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 5s30s | −8bp | 30Y below 5Y |
| Month level | 0bp | mean of 5Y and 30Y, over 31 calendar days |
| Month slope | 0bp | change in 5s30s, over 31 calendar days |
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 5y5y | 2.35% | five years of inflation, priced to start in five years |
| 5Y→10Y | −1bp | nearer-term inflation priced above longer-term |
| 5Y→30Y | −8bp | nearer-term inflation priced above longer-term |
compounded from the 5Y and 10Y breakevens, as FRED builds T5YIFR
| Line | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Trimmed mean PCE (Aug) | 2.19% | year over year, tail movers dropped, and the 10Y breakeven prices 17bp above it |
| Sticky-price core (Aug) | 2.70% | year over year, only the slow-repricing half, and the 10Y breakeven prices 34bp below it |
| Median CPI (Aug) | 2.58% | year over year, built from each month’s middle of the basket, and the 10Y breakeven prices 22bp below it |
| 16% trimmed CPI (Aug) | 2.57% | year over year, each month with both tails dropped by weight, and the 10Y breakeven prices 21bp below it |
all four are underlying cuts, year over year, so each trails the curve
| Anchor | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| NBER (dated to 1 Sep 2026) | not in a dated recession | NBER dates turning points about a year late |
Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the breakeven curve, which is itself derived here from Treasury par yields and TIPS. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.