Breakeven Inflation · Rank · 10Y 2.36% — Steepener

The read

Breakevens · Rank · 11 Sep 2026

10Y 2.36%

rank · 5y: 64th
on the month: +10bp
5s30s rank · 5y: 50th

Percentiles scores everything on one day. This follows one series’ place within its record, day by day.

Breakeven Inflation 10Y rank from 13 Sep 2021 to 11 Sep 2026, against five years: 10Y currently at the 64th percentile, between the 6th and the 100th across the sessions shown.

The market’s priced inflation rate, nominal Treasury yields minus their TIPS equivalent.

Rank

10Y 2.36%: 78th of 1y, 64th of 5y, 80th of 10y, 75th of since 2003. High is more inflation priced over ten years.

Angles

History · 10Y at or above its five-year median of 2.33% for 8 sessions, 106 of the last 250 at or above
Percentiles · Against five years the 10Y is highest at 64 and the 5Y lowest at 54
Curve · 2.49% at the 20Y falling to a low of 2.28% at the 30Y
Change · +10bp on the month, most at the 5Y (+16bp)

How to read this

What it is

Percentiles scores everything on one day. This follows one series’ place within its record, day by day.

How to read the chart

Over sets the stretch. 100 marks its top; the bottom just tags whatever scored lowest, not a fixed number.

Breakevens only go back to 2003. Even the longest lookback covers less than two full cycles.

Scoring 98 against five years after 67 twelve months earlier, a series has spent the year climbing through its record.

Method

The lookback is the claim, not the zoom. The same session can score near the top over five years and mid-pack over twenty. A series pinned at 100 has nowhere left to go, so the level matters too.

Source

US Treasury · Dallas Fed · Atlanta Fed · Cleveland Fed · NBER · daily par and TIPS curves · rank computed here

Breakeven Inflation in detail

11 Sep 2026 · par yields minus TIPS, both from Treasury, derived here

Curve

Tenor	Breakeven	1D	1W	1M	1Y	%ile 5y
5Y	2.40%	−6	+3	+16	−3	54
7Y	2.39%	−4	+3	+13	+2	60
10Y	2.36%	−4	+1	+10	0	64
20Y	2.49%	−3	0	+3	+3	58
30Y	2.28%	−4	−1	+3	+4	59

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

Pair	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
5s10s	−4bp	+2	−2	−6	61
5s30s	−12bp	+2	−4	−13	50
10s30s	−8bp	0	−2	−7	37

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
5s10s30s	+4bp	+2	0	+1	76

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
5s10s30s	+5bp	+2	+1	+4	75

the fly with 5s30s regressed out over five years

State

Line	Value	Detail
5s30s	−12bp	30Y below 5Y
Month level	+11bp	mean of 5Y and 30Y, over 31 calendar days
Month slope	−13bp	change in 5s30s, over 31 calendar days

Priced ahead

Line	Value	Detail
5y5y	2.32%	five years of inflation, priced to start in five years
5Y→10Y	−4bp	nearer-term inflation priced above longer-term
5Y→30Y	−12bp	nearer-term inflation priced above longer-term

compounded from the 5Y and 10Y breakevens, as FRED builds T5YIFR

Against realised

Line	Value	Detail
Trimmed mean PCE (Jul)	2.28%	year over year, tail movers dropped, and the 10Y breakeven prices 8bp above it
Sticky-price core (Aug)	2.70%	year over year, only the slow-repricing half, and the 10Y breakeven prices 34bp below it
Median CPI (Aug)	2.58%	year over year, built from each month’s middle of the basket, and the 10Y breakeven prices 22bp below it
16% trimmed CPI (Aug)	2.57%	year over year, each month with both tails dropped by weight, and the 10Y breakeven prices 21bp below it

all four are underlying cuts, year over year, so each trails the curve

Anchors

Anchor	Value	Detail
NBER (dated to 1 Aug 2026)	not in a dated recession	NBER dates turning points about a year late

Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the breakeven curve, which is itself derived here from Treasury par yields and TIPS. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.