Expected Rate Path · Rank · 10Y 4.02% — Steepener

The read

Expected Path · Rank · 30 Oct 2026

10Y 4.02%

rank · 5y: 88th
on the month: −15bp
2s10s rank · 5y: 50th

Rank follows one series’ percentile through time, so one score becomes a line.

Expected Rate Path 10Y rank from 1 Nov 2021 to 30 Oct 2026, against five years: 10Y currently at the 88th percentile, between the 24th and the 100th across the sessions shown.

Where markets price short-term rates to go, once the term premium is stripped out of the Treasury curve.

Rank

10Y 4.02%: 86th of 1y, 88th of 5y, 94th of 10y, 62nd of since 1990. High is a higher short rate priced over ten years.

Angles

History · 10Y at or above its five-year median of 3.77% for 86 sessions, 122 of the last 250 at or above · the last year of sessions split by today’s five-year median
Percentiles · Against five years the 10Y is highest at 88 and the 1Y lowest at 53 · amber above the median of the window, blue below; a dashed cell has less record than its window
Curve · 4.14% at the 2Y falling to a low of 4.02% at the 10Y · level bars, shaded by five-year rank; the headline maturity is outlined
Change · −15bp on the month, most at the 3Y (−19bp) · on the month, in basis points; amber rose, blue fell

How to read this

What it is

Rank follows one series’ percentile through time, so one score becomes a line. It draws a standing inside the record, not the reading behind it.

How to read the chart

Over sets the stretch. 100 marks its top; the bottom just tags whatever scored lowest, not a fixed number.

Scores drift slowly here on a smoothed series, so a crossing of 50 carries more weight than it would on a yield.

Scoring 98 against five years after 67 twelve months earlier, a series has spent the year climbing through its record.

Method

The lookback is the claim, not the zoom. The same session can score near the top over five years and mid-pack over twenty. A series pinned at 100 has nowhere left to go, so the level matters too.

Source

Federal Reserve Board · NBER via FRED · fitted zero curve less the term premium · Kim-Wright · rank computed here

Expected Rate Path in detail

30 Oct 2026 · Kim-Wright fitted zero minus premium, Federal Reserve Board via FRED, differenced here. Released in batches, so its axis trails Treasury

Curve

Tenor	Expected rate	1D	1W	1M	1Y	%ile 5y
1Y	4.09%	−4	−5	−12	+56	53
2Y	4.14%	−4	−5	−17	+73	61
3Y	4.13%	−4	−5	−19	+74	71
5Y	4.08%	−4	−5	−19	+62	80
7Y	4.04%	−3	−5	−17	+51	85
10Y	4.02%	−3	−4	−15	+39	88

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

Pair	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
1s5s	−1bp	0	0	−7	68
2s5s	−6bp	+1	0	−2	54
5s10s	−6bp	+1	+1	+3	42
2s10s	−12bp	+2	+1	+2	50

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
2s5s10s	0bp	−1	−1	−5	89

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
2s5s10s	+15bp	−1	−1	−6	91

the fly with 2s10s regressed out over five years

State

Line	Value	Detail
2s10s	−12bp	10Y below 2Y
Month level	−16bp	mean of 2Y and 10Y, over 31 calendar days
Month slope	+4bp	change in 2s10s, over 31 calendar days

Anchors

Anchor	Value	Detail
NBER (dated to 1 Oct 2026)	not in a dated recession	NBER dates turning points about a year late

Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the expected short-rate curve, which is itself derived here from the Kim-Wright fitted zero and term premium. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.