Expected Rate Path · Rank · 10Y 3.95% — Steepener

The read

Expected Path · Rank · 4 Sep 2026

10Y 3.95%

rank · 5y: 82nd
on the month: +4bp
2s10s rank · 5y: 57th

Percentiles scores everything on one day. This follows one series’ place within its record, day by day.

Expected Rate Path 10Y rank from 7 Sep 2021 to 4 Sep 2026, against five years: 10Y currently at the 82nd percentile, between the 22nd and the 100th across the sessions shown.

Where markets price short-term rates to go, once the term premium is stripped out of the Treasury curve.

Rank

10Y 3.95%: 98th of 1y, 82nd of 5y, 91st of 10y, 60th of since 1990. High is a higher short rate priced over ten years.

Angles

History · 10Y at or above its five-year median of 3.74% for 91 sessions, 101 of the last 250 at or above
Percentiles · Against five years the 10Y is highest at 82 and the 1Y lowest at 44
Curve · 3.86% at the 1Y rising to a high of 3.95% at the 10Y
Change · +4bp on the month, most at the 2Y (+8bp)

How to read this

What it is

Percentiles scores everything on one day. This follows one series’ place within its record, day by day.

How to read the chart

Over sets the stretch. 100 marks its top; the bottom just tags whatever scored lowest, not a fixed number.

Scores drift slowly here on a smoothed series, so a crossing of 50 carries more weight than it would on a yield.

Scoring 98 against five years after 67 twelve months earlier, a series has spent the year climbing through its record.

Method

The lookback is the claim, not the zoom. The same session can score near the top over five years and mid-pack over twenty. A series pinned at 100 has nowhere left to go, so the level matters too.

Source

Federal Reserve Board · NBER via FRED · fitted zero curve less the term premium · Kim-Wright · rank computed here

Expected Rate Path in detail

4 Sep 2026 · Kim-Wright fitted zero minus premium, Federal Reserve Board via FRED, differenced here. Released in batches, so its axis trails Treasury

Curve

Tenor	Expected rate	1D	1W	1M	1Y	%ile 5y
1Y	3.86%	+1	+4	+6	+13	44
2Y	3.91%	+2	+5	+8	+35	53
3Y	3.93%	+2	+4	+8	+40	59
5Y	3.94%	+1	+3	+7	+33	73
7Y	3.94%	+1	+2	+5	+24	80
10Y	3.95%	+1	+1	+4	+16	82

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

Pair	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
1s5s	+8bp	0	−1	+1	77
2s5s	+2bp	0	−2	−1	65
5s10s	+1bp	−1	−2	−3	49
2s10s	+4bp	−1	−4	−4	57

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
2s5s10s	+1bp	0	0	+2	94

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
2s5s10s	+15bp	0	+1	+2	93

the fly with 2s10s regressed out over five years

State

Line	Value	Detail
2s10s	+4bp	10Y above 2Y
Month level	+8bp	mean of 2Y and 10Y, over 31 calendar days
Month slope	−4bp	change in 2s10s, over 31 calendar days

Anchors

Anchor	Value	Detail
NBER (dated to 1 Aug 2026)	not in a dated recession	NBER dates turning points about a year late

Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the expected short-rate curve, which is itself derived here from the Kim-Wright fitted zero and term premium. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.