Expected Rate Path · History · 10Y 4.12% — Steepener

The read

Expected Path · History · 25 Sep 2026

10Y 4.12%

on the month: +22bp
rank · 5y: 96th
2s10s: −18bp

History is the complete record of closes a single maturity has printed, in the average expected short rate.

Expected Rate Path 10Y from 27 Sep 2021 to 25 Sep 2026: 10Y currently 4.12%, between 1.69% and 4.34% over the window.

Where markets price short-term rates to go, once the term premium is stripped out of the Treasury curve.

Rank

10Y 4.12%: 99th of 1y, 96th of 5y, 98th of 10y, 65th of since 1990. High is a higher short rate priced over ten years.

Angles

Curve · 4.30% at the 2Y falling to a low of 4.12% at the 10Y · level bars, shaded by five-year rank; the headline maturity is outlined
Change · +22bp on the month, most at the 2Y (+51bp) · on the month, in basis points; amber rose, blue fell
Percentiles · Against five years the 10Y is highest at 96 and the 1Y lowest at 60 · amber above the median of the window, blue below; a dashed cell has less record than its window
Spread · 2s10s at −18bp, 46th percentile of five years · box is the middle half, tick the median, dotted line is zero

How to read this

What it is

History is the complete record of closes a single maturity has printed, in the average expected short rate. It reaches the earliest print there is, and a break in it marks a session nobody published, never a quiet one.

How to read the chart

Each point is a single close in percent, for the maturity on the button. It is the level itself, not a change or a rank.

Months of direction carry the meaning here; one print rarely does. Widen Show and a big day looks small.

Method

Where a print is missing, the line breaks rather than bridging the gap. Each maturity’s record starts when its own series starts, which leaves the left edge ragged.

Source

Federal Reserve Board · NBER via FRED · fitted zero curve less the term premium · Kim-Wright

Expected Rate Path in detail

25 Sep 2026 · Kim-Wright fitted zero minus premium, Federal Reserve Board via FRED, differenced here. Released in batches, so its axis trails Treasury

Curve

Tenor	Expected rate	1D	1W	1M	1Y	%ile 5y
1Y	4.22%	−1	+9	+46	+61	60
2Y	4.30%	−1	+11	+51	+82	72
3Y	4.29%	−1	+11	+48	+83	80
5Y	4.23%	−1	+10	+38	+70	91
7Y	4.17%	0	+9	+30	+56	95
10Y	4.12%	0	+7	+22	+42	96

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

Pair	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
1s5s	+1bp	0	0	−8	69
2s5s	−7bp	+1	−1	−13	52
5s10s	−10bp	+1	−2	−16	35
2s10s	−18bp	+1	−3	−29	46

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
2s5s10s	+3bp	0	+1	+3	95

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
2s5s10s	+20bp	0	+2	+7	97

the fly with 2s10s regressed out over five years

State

Line	Value	Detail
2s10s	−18bp	10Y below 2Y
Month level	+36bp	mean of 2Y and 10Y, over 31 calendar days
Month slope	−29bp	change in 2s10s, over 31 calendar days

Anchors

Anchor	Value	Detail
NBER (dated to 1 Sep 2026)	not in a dated recession	NBER dates turning points about a year late

Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the expected short-rate curve, which is itself derived here from the Kim-Wright fitted zero and term premium. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.