Expected Rate Path · History · 10Y 3.95% — Steepener

The read

Expected Path · History · 4 Sep 2026

10Y 3.95%

on the month: +4bp
rank · 5y: 82nd
2s10s: +4bp

The record of one maturity, close by close. The Curve cuts across maturities; this cuts along time.

Expected Rate Path 10Y from 7 Sep 2021 to 4 Sep 2026: 10Y currently 3.95%, between 1.66% and 4.34% over the window.

Where markets price short-term rates to go, once the term premium is stripped out of the Treasury curve.

Rank

10Y 3.95%: 98th of 1y, 82nd of 5y, 91st of 10y, 60th of since 1990. High is a higher short rate priced over ten years.

Angles

Curve · 3.86% at the 1Y rising to a high of 3.95% at the 10Y
Change · +4bp on the month, most at the 2Y (+8bp)
Percentiles · Against five years the 10Y is highest at 82 and the 1Y lowest at 44
Spread · 2s10s at +4bp, 57th percentile of five years

How to read this

What it is

The record of one maturity, close by close. The Curve cuts across maturities; this cuts along time.

How to read the chart

Each point is a single close in percent, for the maturity on the button. It is the level itself, not a change or a rank.

Months of direction carry the meaning here; one print rarely does. Widen Show and a big day looks small.

Method

Where a print is missing, the line breaks rather than bridging the gap. Each maturity’s record starts when its own series starts, which leaves the left edge ragged.

Source

Federal Reserve Board · NBER via FRED · fitted zero curve less the term premium · Kim-Wright

Expected Rate Path in detail

4 Sep 2026 · Kim-Wright fitted zero minus premium, Federal Reserve Board via FRED, differenced here. Released in batches, so its axis trails Treasury

Curve

Tenor	Expected rate	1D	1W	1M	1Y	%ile 5y
1Y	3.86%	+1	+4	+6	+13	44
2Y	3.91%	+2	+5	+8	+35	53
3Y	3.93%	+2	+4	+8	+40	59
5Y	3.94%	+1	+3	+7	+33	73
7Y	3.94%	+1	+2	+5	+24	80
10Y	3.95%	+1	+1	+4	+16	82

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

Pair	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
1s5s	+8bp	0	−1	+1	77
2s5s	+2bp	0	−2	−1	65
5s10s	+1bp	−1	−2	−3	49
2s10s	+4bp	−1	−4	−4	57

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
2s5s10s	+1bp	0	0	+2	94

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
2s5s10s	+15bp	0	+1	+2	93

the fly with 2s10s regressed out over five years

State

Line	Value	Detail
2s10s	+4bp	10Y above 2Y
Month level	+8bp	mean of 2Y and 10Y, over 31 calendar days
Month slope	−4bp	change in 2s10s, over 31 calendar days

Anchors

Anchor	Value	Detail
NBER (dated to 1 Aug 2026)	not in a dated recession	NBER dates turning points about a year late

Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the expected short-rate curve, which is itself derived here from the Kim-Wright fitted zero and term premium. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.