Expected Rate Path · History · 10Y 4.02% — Steepener

The read

Expected Path · History · 30 Oct 2026

10Y 4.02%

on the month: −15bp
rank · 5y: 88th
2s10s: −12bp

History is the complete record of closes a single maturity has printed, in the average expected short rate.

Expected Rate Path 10Y from 1 Nov 2021 to 30 Oct 2026: 10Y currently 4.02%, between 1.69% and 4.34% over the window.

Where markets price short-term rates to go, once the term premium is stripped out of the Treasury curve.

Rank

10Y 4.02%: 86th of 1y, 88th of 5y, 94th of 10y, 62nd of since 1990. High is a higher short rate priced over ten years.

Angles

Curve · 4.14% at the 2Y falling to a low of 4.02% at the 10Y · level bars, shaded by five-year rank; the headline maturity is outlined
Change · −15bp on the month, most at the 3Y (−19bp) · on the month, in basis points; amber rose, blue fell
Percentiles · Against five years the 10Y is highest at 88 and the 1Y lowest at 53 · amber above the median of the window, blue below; a dashed cell has less record than its window
Spread · 2s10s at −12bp, 50th percentile of five years · box is the middle half, tick the median, dotted line is zero

How to read this

What it is

History is the complete record of closes a single maturity has printed, in the average expected short rate. It reaches the earliest print there is, and a break in it marks a session nobody published, never a quiet one.

How to read the chart

Each point is a single close in percent, for the maturity on the button. It is the level itself, not a change or a rank.

Months of direction carry the meaning here; one print rarely does. Widen Show and a big day looks small.

Method

Where a print is missing, the line breaks rather than bridging the gap. Each maturity’s record starts when its own series starts, which leaves the left edge ragged.

Source

Federal Reserve Board · NBER via FRED · fitted zero curve less the term premium · Kim-Wright

Expected Rate Path in detail

30 Oct 2026 · Kim-Wright fitted zero minus premium, Federal Reserve Board via FRED, differenced here. Released in batches, so its axis trails Treasury

Curve

Tenor	Expected rate	1D	1W	1M	1Y	%ile 5y
1Y	4.09%	−4	−5	−12	+56	53
2Y	4.14%	−4	−5	−17	+73	61
3Y	4.13%	−4	−5	−19	+74	71
5Y	4.08%	−4	−5	−19	+62	80
7Y	4.04%	−3	−5	−17	+51	85
10Y	4.02%	−3	−4	−15	+39	88

tenors 1, 5, 21, 252 trading days; anchors 1, 7, 30, 365 calendar

Slope

Pair	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
1s5s	−1bp	0	0	−7	68
2s5s	−6bp	+1	0	−2	54
5s10s	−6bp	+1	+1	+3	42
2s10s	−12bp	+2	+1	+2	50

long − short, in basis points

Curvature

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
2s5s10s	0bp	−1	−1	−5	89

2 × belly − wings, 50-50 weighted, not duration-neutral

Slope-neutral

Fly	BP	1D	1W	1M	%ile 5y
2s5s10s	+15bp	−1	−1	−6	91

the fly with 2s10s regressed out over five years

State

Line	Value	Detail
2s10s	−12bp	10Y below 2Y
Month level	−16bp	mean of 2Y and 10Y, over 31 calendar days
Month slope	+4bp	change in 2s10s, over 31 calendar days

Anchors

Anchor	Value	Detail
NBER (dated to 1 Oct 2026)	not in a dated recession	NBER dates turning points about a year late

Spreads and butterflies are derived here from the expected short-rate curve, which is itself derived here from the Kim-Wright fitted zero and term premium. They are not published by any source. A dash means the value could not be computed or was too thin to rank, never zero.