The odds the US economy is in recession in July 2027, read from the July 2026 curve.
Since 1953, monthly, through 2026-07-01.
A probit turns the slope of the curve into the odds of a US recession, twelve months out.
The fit is pinned: 1953-04 to 2025-07, 868 months, target twelve months ahead. The last year of readings is out of sample by construction.
A flat curve reads 23% on this fit and 29% on the sample ending in 2019, before the deepest inversion since 1981 passed with no recession.
Steepener